{
  "name": "AI Bubble Index",
  "url": "https://aistockwire.com/ai-bubble-index",
  "publisher": "AIStockWire",
  "license": "Free to cite with attribution and a link.",
  "disclaimer": "A record of published data, not a forecast and not investment advice. The index cannot time a correction.",
  "asOf": "2026-08-28T22:35:02.257Z",
  "score": 56,
  "band": "Heated",
  "scale": {
    "min": 0,
    "max": 100,
    "bands": [
      {
        "label": "Cold",
        "min": 0,
        "max": 30
      },
      {
        "label": "Building",
        "min": 31,
        "max": 50
      },
      {
        "label": "Heated",
        "min": 51,
        "max": 70
      },
      {
        "label": "Overheated",
        "min": 71,
        "max": 85
      },
      {
        "label": "Euphoria",
        "min": 86,
        "max": 100
      }
    ]
  },
  "coverage": 100,
  "missing": [],
  "updateCadence": "Recalculated four times each weekday. Two of six components move only on new filings.",
  "methodology": "Each component is mapped to 0-100 through a piecewise-linear anchor table tied to stated observations, then combined as a weighted average over the components with a reading. Weights and anchors are published in full.",
  "components": [
    {
      "key": "commitmentGap",
      "label": "Commitment gap",
      "question": "Is the demand behind the buildout real?",
      "weight": 0.22,
      "cadence": "quarterly",
      "unit": "% of announced demand unbacked",
      "raw": 65.41,
      "score": 62,
      "anchors": [
        [
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          50,
          40
        ],
        [
          75,
          75
        ],
        [
          95,
          100
        ]
      ],
      "anchorNote": "50 percent maps to 40 because roughly half of announced data center projects have historically failed to arrive on schedule, so that much attrition is the baseline rather than a warning. 95 percent maps to 100.",
      "note": "median of 7 independent screens run by grid operators, utilities and regulators"
    },
    {
      "key": "valuation",
      "label": "Valuation",
      "question": "How much is priced in?",
      "weight": 0.17,
      "cadence": "daily",
      "unit": "median forward P/E of the AI basket",
      "raw": 19.04,
      "score": 33,
      "anchors": [
        [
          16,
          25
        ],
        [
          25,
          50
        ],
        [
          40,
          80
        ],
        [
          60,
          100
        ]
      ],
      "anchorNote": "16 is the long-run S&P 500 median forward multiple and maps to 25. 60 maps to 100, in the region of dot-com peak multiples.",
      "note": "median of 10 forward P/E readings across 10 symbols"
    },
    {
      "key": "insiders",
      "label": "Insider selling",
      "question": "Are the people inside selling more than usual?",
      "weight": 0.13,
      "cadence": "daily",
      "unit": "discretionary selling against its own trailing baseline",
      "raw": 1.1847,
      "score": 46,
      "anchors": [
        [
          0.4,
          10
        ],
        [
          1,
          40
        ],
        [
          2,
          70
        ],
        [
          4,
          100
        ]
      ],
      "anchorNote": "The last 90 days of discretionary selling against the median of the prior four 90-day windows, so the basket is judged against itself rather than an outside benchmark. A reading of 1.0 is its own normal rate and maps to 40. Rule 10b5-1 plans and tax withholding are excluded.",
      "note": "$500M of discretionary selling across 10 of 25 AI infrastructure names in the last 90 days, against a baseline of $422M from 4 earlier windows. NVDA is 82 percent of the current window."
    },
    {
      "key": "counterparty",
      "label": "Counterparty concentration",
      "question": "How few counterparties is this resting on?",
      "weight": 0.13,
      "cadence": "quarterly",
      "unit": "top customers as % of revenue, and vendor commitments as % of revenue",
      "raw": 47.5,
      "score": 67,
      "anchors": [
        [
          15,
          20
        ],
        [
          30,
          45
        ],
        [
          54,
          75
        ],
        [
          70,
          100
        ]
      ],
      "anchorNote": "15 maps to 20 because that is what Lucent's largest customer reached before its collapse, per its fiscal 2000 annual report. The score averages customer concentration with vendor financing commitments measured against revenue.",
      "note": "average of 54% customer concentration (NVIDIA 10-Q, three direct customers) and 41% vendor commitment to revenue (the $105B OpenAI guarantee against $253.4B trailing revenue)"
    },
    {
      "key": "momentum",
      "label": "Momentum",
      "question": "How far above trend is the price?",
      "weight": 0.13,
      "cadence": "daily",
      "unit": "basket price divided by its 200-day average",
      "raw": 1.1141,
      "score": 54,
      "anchors": [
        [
          0.9,
          10
        ],
        [
          1,
          30
        ],
        [
          1.1,
          50
        ],
        [
          1.2,
          75
        ],
        [
          1.4,
          100
        ]
      ],
      "anchorNote": "A basket trading at its 200-day average maps to 30. Twenty percent above trend maps to 75.",
      "note": "median price to 200-day average across 10 symbols"
    },
    {
      "key": "complacency",
      "label": "Complacency",
      "question": "Is any of this priced as a risk?",
      "weight": 0.08,
      "cadence": "daily",
      "unit": "VIX, inverted",
      "raw": 14.43,
      "score": 69,
      "anchors": [
        [
          10,
          100
        ],
        [
          12,
          85
        ],
        [
          15,
          65
        ],
        [
          20,
          35
        ],
        [
          30,
          10
        ],
        [
          45,
          0
        ]
      ],
      "anchorNote": "Inverted on purpose: a low VIX means the market is pricing no stress, which raises the reading rather than lowering it. 20 is near the long-run average and maps to 35. 45 maps to 0, the level reached at the dot-com bust peak.",
      "note": "CBOE Volatility Index, last regular-session print"
    },
    {
      "key": "contractedCover",
      "label": "Contracted cover",
      "question": "How much disclosed contract coverage supports the valuation?",
      "weight": 0.14,
      "cadence": "quarterly",
      "unit": "contracted revenue as % of market value",
      "raw": 21.67,
      "score": 69,
      "anchors": [
        [
          10,
          100
        ],
        [
          25,
          60
        ],
        [
          50,
          25
        ],
        [
          100,
          0
        ]
      ],
      "anchorNote": "Inverted: cover falls as the market pays more for demand nobody has signed for, so a low reading raises the score. 100 percent, where signed contracts equal the whole market value, maps to 0; 10 percent, where nine tenths of the price rests on uncommitted revenue, maps to 100. Only 10-Q and 10-K figures count.",
      "note": "$2932B of disclosed GAAP obligations against $13531B of market value across 18 companies"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "at": "2026-08-20T22:35:01.750Z",
      "day": "2026-08-20",
      "score": 56,
      "parts": {
        "commitmentGap": 62,
        "valuation": 33,
        "insiders": 72,
        "counterparty": 67,
        "momentum": 50,
        "complacency": 59
      }
    },
    {
      "at": "2026-08-21T23:10:57.853Z",
      "day": "2026-08-21",
      "score": 59,
      "parts": {
        "commitmentGap": 62,
        "valuation": 34,
        "insiders": 73,
        "counterparty": 67,
        "momentum": 49,
        "complacency": 64,
        "contractedCover": 68
      }
    },
    {
      "at": "2026-08-22T01:05:46.016Z",
      "day": "2026-08-22",
      "score": 59,
      "parts": {
        "commitmentGap": 62,
        "valuation": 34,
        "insiders": 73,
        "counterparty": 67,
        "momentum": 49,
        "complacency": 64,
        "contractedCover": 68
      }
    },
    {
      "at": "2026-08-24T22:35:01.502Z",
      "day": "2026-08-24",
      "score": 56,
      "parts": {
        "commitmentGap": 62,
        "valuation": 32,
        "insiders": 62,
        "counterparty": 67,
        "momentum": 47,
        "complacency": 60,
        "contractedCover": 68
      }
    },
    {
      "at": "2026-08-25T22:35:01.948Z",
      "day": "2026-08-25",
      "score": 55,
      "parts": {
        "commitmentGap": 62,
        "valuation": 33,
        "insiders": 47,
        "counterparty": 67,
        "momentum": 49,
        "complacency": 62,
        "contractedCover": 68
      }
    },
    {
      "at": "2026-08-26T22:35:01.831Z",
      "day": "2026-08-26",
      "score": 55,
      "parts": {
        "commitmentGap": 62,
        "valuation": 33,
        "insiders": 47,
        "counterparty": 67,
        "momentum": 46,
        "complacency": 64,
        "contractedCover": 68
      }
    },
    {
      "at": "2026-08-27T22:35:01.649Z",
      "day": "2026-08-27",
      "score": 56,
      "parts": {
        "commitmentGap": 62,
        "valuation": 34,
        "insiders": 45,
        "counterparty": 67,
        "momentum": 54,
        "complacency": 68,
        "contractedCover": 68
      }
    },
    {
      "at": "2026-08-28T22:35:02.257Z",
      "day": "2026-08-28",
      "score": 56,
      "parts": {
        "commitmentGap": 62,
        "valuation": 33,
        "insiders": 46,
        "counterparty": 67,
        "momentum": 54,
        "complacency": 69,
        "contractedCover": 69
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "component": "commitmentGap",
      "title": "ERCOT, Assessing the Grid, presented to the Texas Senate Committee on Business and Commerce (July 29, 2026)",
      "url": "https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2026/07/29/ERCOT-Senate-July-29-Panel-1-Assessing-The-Grid.pdf",
      "asOf": "2026-07-28"
    },
    {
      "component": "commitmentGap",
      "title": "Georgia Power, Quarterly Large Load Economic Development Report, Q1 2026, Georgia PSC Docket 56002",
      "url": "https://services.psc.ga.gov/api/v1/External/Public/Get/Document/DownloadFile/226607/107887",
      "asOf": "2026-03-31"
    },
    {
      "component": "commitmentGap",
      "title": "AEP Ohio (February 13, 2026)",
      "url": "https://www.aepohio.com/company/news/view?releaseID=10753",
      "asOf": "2026-02-13"
    },
    {
      "component": "commitmentGap",
      "title": "PPL Electric Utilities, second quarter 2026 disclosure",
      "url": "http://paenvironmentdaily.blogspot.com/2026/08/ppl-electric-utilities-reports-318-gw.html",
      "asOf": "2026-06-30"
    },
    {
      "component": "commitmentGap",
      "title": "Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Executive Order 2026-05 (August 18, 2026)",
      "url": "https://www.pa.gov/governor/newsroom/2026-press-releases/governor-shapiro-signs-executive-order-on-data-center-developmen",
      "asOf": "2026-08-18"
    },
    {
      "component": "commitmentGap",
      "title": "ERCOT, Report on the Capacity, Demand and Reserves in the ERCOT Region, 2026 to 2030 (December 19, 2025)",
      "url": "https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2025/12/19/CapacityDemandandReservesReport_December2025.pdf",
      "asOf": "2025-12-19"
    },
    {
      "component": "commitmentGap",
      "title": "NERC, 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment",
      "url": "https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/nerc_ltra_2025.pdf",
      "asOf": "2026-01-01"
    },
    {
      "component": "counterparty",
      "title": "NVIDIA Corporation, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended April 26, 2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000052/nvda-20260426.htm",
      "asOf": "2026-04-26"
    },
    {
      "component": "counterparty",
      "title": "NVIDIA Corporation, Form 8-K, residual value guarantees for the Portsmouth site",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000069/nvda-20260817.htm",
      "asOf": "2026-08-17"
    },
    {
      "component": "insiders",
      "title": "SEC Form 4 filings, collected continuously by AIStockWire",
      "url": "https://aistockwire.com/insiders",
      "asOf": "2026-08-28T22:35:02.257Z"
    },
    {
      "component": "valuation, momentum, complacency",
      "title": "Yahoo Finance quote API",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com",
      "asOf": "2026-08-28T22:35:02.257Z"
    }
  ]
}