Agility Robotics (CCXI) trades 66% above the price its own insiders are paying. Nobody outside the deal has seen the financials.

Agility Robotics (CCXI) closed at $16.62 on Friday against a $10 deal price. That gap is the whole argument over this stock. Six funds bought in at $10 back in December and reported 38% of the Class A stock between them. Only one has disclosed selling any of it. The rest have until August 14 to file an amended Schedule 13G showing where they stood on June 30.

Nobody outside the deal has seen Agility's numbers either. The Form S-4 went to the SEC on July 13 as a confidential submission, so there is still no filed revenue figure and no audited balance sheet.

Agility builds humanoid robots in Salem, Oregon, and Digit units are working at Schaeffler, GXO, Toyota and Mercado Libre. Churchill XI agreed on June 24 to take the company public at a $2.5 billion pre-money value. The combined business plans to trade as AGLT.

Agility says that would make it the only US-listed pure-play humanoid company with active commercial deployments. Those qualifiers are doing real work. Tesla builds Optimus but sells cars. Richtech Robotics is already on Nasdaq with a humanoid of its own, and most of what it sells is service robots. It's one of the robot stocks already trading.

Who bought at $10, and who has been selling?

All six filed as 5% holders in the weeks after Churchill XI raised its money in December 2025. Together they reported about 16.1 million shares.

Every one of them is a merger-arbitrage fund. At the July 6 high of $19.69, that December position was worth 97% more than it cost.

Only Millennium Management has disclosed a sale. An amended filing covering June 30, 2026 put its holding at 1,490,636 shares. The stake is 3.6% of the company, down about a third. CCXI closed at $17.45 that day. It rose another 13% over the next three sessions before it turned. The filing showing the size of the cut landed on July 31.

The other five have disclosed nothing since the deal was announced, and none filed a first-quarter amendment either. A Schedule 13G holder must amend within 45 days of the end of a quarter in which its position materially changed, and must file a final amendment on dropping below 5%. That puts the next round due by August 14, 2026.

Those filings report June 30 positions, which stops six days short of the July 6 high. Anything sold into the run-up, or into the slide after it, falls in the third quarter. Those amendments aren't due until November 14.

BlueCrest Capital Management, founded by Michael Platt, has bought in since the announcement, reporting 2,354,233 shares, or 5.6%, as of June 26. Rich Huang's entities reported 2,150,177 shares, or 5.13%, as of July 13.

Churchill Sponsor XI, the vehicle Michael Klein controls, is the largest holder with 14,300,000 shares, or 25.7%. Most of it is 13,800,000 Class B founder shares that convert one-for-one at closing, the promote for putting the SPAC together. The stake dilutes once Agility's shareholders and the PIPE come in.

Where does the merger stand?

Churchill XI and Agility disclosed the confidential submission in an 8-K on July 14. Nothing in a confidential draft reaches the public file, so every Agility figure below comes from a company presentation rather than a document an auditor signed.

The public S-4 will carry the revenue and loss numbers. It will also set the vote date and the redemption deadline. Neither has been announced.

What are the terms of the deal?

Churchill XI holds about $420 million in trust. Foxconn is leading a $200 million private placement at $10.00 a share. Together that's more than $620 million in expected gross proceeds.

The June 24 announcement puts closing in 2026 and doesn't narrow it to a quarter. The listing venue is described only as a major North American exchange. Closing needs a shareholder vote, an effective registration statement and regulatory approvals.

Insiders are buying at that same $10 price. Agility CEO Peggy Johnson told investors on the June 24 call that existing backers had committed more than $60 million to the placement, with Foxconn leading it. She named Amazon, NVIDIA and SoftBank among the investors already on the register, along with Sony and Schaeffler.

The CCXI ticker used to belong to ChemoCentryx, a biotech Amgen bought for about $3.7 billion in 2022. Churchill XI is the blank-check company that inherited it, run by dealmaker Michael Klein, the same structure that took DraftKings and Lucid public.

What does Digit actually do, and who is paying for it?

Digit is a two-legged robot that Agility markets as made for work. It moves totes, loads and unloads, and handles the repetitive material-handling jobs that warehouses struggle to staff. Johnson opened the investor presentation with footage of Digit at a Schaeffler plant, describing it as "picking up these dirty automotive parts, putting them in a washer, unloading them on the other side, putting it in a dryer, and then stacking it."

Four customers have active deployments, according to Agility's July releases: Schaeffler, GXO, Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada and Mercado Libre. The pipeline runs to more than 30 enterprise customers. GXO was the first to commercialize Digit v4. Amazon was named as a customer on the June call and is also an investor through its Industrial Innovation Fund.

Agility reports more than $300 million of multi-year Digit v5 orders, 65,000 hours of operating time, and deployments across nine facilities. Those orders are "subject to the realization of certain contractual milestones."

Jen Hunter, then Agility's CFO and COO, said "the vast majority" of the order book sits under a Robotics-as-a-Service subscription, where Agility keeps the robot and bills over time. On her figures, one Digit generates about $500,000 of cumulative revenue over a five-year life that way, and about $400,000 if the customer buys it outright, so the orders are recognized across years rather than booked at signing.

Hunter put the bill of materials for Digit v4 at about $125,000 a unit today, with a path toward $30,000, payback under one year, and product margins above 70% as volumes rise. Those are company projections, not audited results.

RoboFab in Salem, stood up in 2024, is sized for up to 10,000 robots a year. Agility opened a second site in Fremont, California on July 16. "Fremont is where we build the mind of Digit, while Salem is where we build the body," Johnson said.

On July 23, Agility named Michael Beer chief financial officer, hired from Energy Vault Holdings, and moved Hunter to chief operating officer only.

What has the stock actually done?

CCXI lost 35% from the July 6 high to the July 28 low. It's gained 31% back since. July 28 was also the day the FCC moved to ban Chinese robots, and the stock bottomed that morning and closed up.

Volume topped 8 million shares on six of the nine sessions between June 24 and July 6. It ran between 1.2 million and 4 million a day through the July slide. No filing yet covers who was trading during either stretch.

What are the risks?

A pre-close SPAC at $16.62 holds about $10 a share in cash. If the deal breaks, the trust is what's left. The other $6.62 is a bet on a merger that hasn't closed. Shareholders can also redeem for cash before the vote, which cuts into the money Agility actually receives.

Agility isn't profitable, and no filed statement yet shows how unprofitable. Figure AI and Apptronik are private and well financed. China's Unitree sells cheaper machines. The 70% margins and the $30,000 bill of materials are targets, not results.

"This is no longer a vision of the future," Johnson told investors on the June call. "Humanoid robots are already performing useful work today."

This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.