Smart money confluence
Updated · recomputed from the live feeds at most every 10 minutes
| Ticker | Signals | Congress | Insiders | Tracked funds | Contract awards | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION | 2/4 | 1 buy Lloyd Doggett · Oct 5 | - | - | $163.1M 3 awards · Department of Homeland Security | Oct 22 |
| MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION | 2/4 | 2 buys Lisa McClain, Cleo Fields · Oct 12 | - | - | $21.5M 2 awards · Department of State | Oct 21 |
| ORCL ORACLE CORP | 2/4 | - | $3.5M 1 buyer · Oct 1 | - | $1.4M 1 award · Office of Personnel Management | Oct 14 |
| LEN LENNAR CORP /NEW/ | 2/4 | - | $246.5M 1 buyer · Oct 5 | Berkshire Hathaway: Form 4 (Oct 5) Berkshire Hathaway: Form 4 (Sep 30) | - | Oct 5 |
How the score works
Each ticker earns one point per active signal category, up to 4/4. Congress: a member disclosed a purchase in the last 30 days. Insiders: open-market Form 4 buys in the last 30 days, counting only individuals who bought $50k+, with at least one reaching $100k. Tracked funds: a 13D, 13G, or Form 4 from a fund we follow in the last 45 days, or a position in its latest quarterly 13F worth $50M+ and 0.5%+ of that fund's own book, either new or up 25%+ in share count from the prior quarter. Contract awards: $1M+ in newly recorded federal awards in the last 30 days. Put and call positions never count as bullish.
Three filters run before any of that, because each feed carries a lot of routine activity that reads like a signal and is not. A congressional filing disclosing 15+ purchases at once is an advisor rebalancing a managed account, so the entire filing is skipped. A fund holding more than 300 positions is a multi-manager or systematic platform whose quarterly changes are not conviction bets, so its 13F adds are excluded. And employee plan buying is aggregated per person, so twenty staff each buying a few thousand dollars never adds up to an insider signal.
Rows are ordered by strength, not by date. Every active category is worth one point plus up to one more for size and independent confirmation: a congressional purchase in the $50k+ bracket or buying by two or more members, insider buying above $1M or from two or more people, a fund position worth 2%+ of its book or adds from two or more funds, and award totals above $100M and $1B. That is why a $3B NASA award does not sort level with a $1,001 bracket purchase. The signal count still tells you how many independent groups showed up, which is the part that matters most.
Use this data
Our figures are free to reuse in articles, newsletters, and research with attribution and a link back to this page. How every number is computed: methodology. Current table as a file: download CSV.
Suggested citation: AIStockWire, “Smart money confluence,” aistockwire.com/smart-money. Questions about the data: support@aistockwire.com.
Frequently asked questions
What counts as a signal on this board?
Four independent disclosure feeds, each from public records. Congress: a House or Senate member disclosed buying the stock in the last 30 days. Insiders: officers, directors, or 10% owners reported open-market purchases (SEC Form 4, transaction code P) in the last 30 days, with at least one individual buying $100,000 or more. Funds: a hedge fund we track filed a 13D, 13G, or Form 4 on the stock in the last 45 days, or its latest quarterly 13F disclosed a share position worth at least $50 million and at least 0.5% of that fund's own portfolio, either brand new or up at least 25% in share count from the prior quarter. Contracts: the company won at least $1 million in newly recorded federal contract awards in the last 30 days.
Why does a stock need at least two signals to appear?
One signal alone is common and often means little on its own. A single insider buy, one congressional purchase, or a routine contract award happens constantly across the market. The point of this page is overlap: independent groups of informed buyers showing up on the same stock in the same window. Two signals is worth a look, three or four is rare.
What gets filtered out before a stock reaches this board?
Three kinds of routine activity that look like signals but are not. First, bulk congressional filings: when one member's periodic transaction report discloses 15 or more purchases at once, that is an advisor rebalancing a managed account rather than a member picking stocks, so the whole filing is skipped. Second, employee plan buying: an individual insider has to buy at least $50,000 to count as a buyer, and at least one buyer must reach $100,000, so a wave of staff each buying a few thousand dollars on a payroll plan does not register as insider conviction. Third, index-like fund adds: a hedge fund holding more than 300 positions is a multi-manager or systematic platform whose 13F changes are not conviction bets, so its quarterly adds are excluded, and any position that clears that test still has to be worth 0.5% or more of the fund's own book.
How fresh is this data?
As fresh as the law allows, which varies by feed. Form 4 insider trades must be filed within 2 business days. Fund 13D filings have a 5 business day window. Congressional disclosures can legally arrive up to 30 to 45 days after the trade. Quarterly 13F holdings are the slowest, filed up to 45 days after quarter end, so a "new position" from a 13F reflects last quarter, not today. Contract awards post to USAspending on a rolling basis, sometimes days after the announcement. We poll every feed multiple times a day and this page recomputes at most every 10 minutes.
Does a high confluence score mean I should buy the stock?
No. This is public disclosure data organized to save you research time, not investment advice. Informed buyers are wrong all the time, disclosures lag the actual trades, and none of these filings say why anyone bought. Treat the board as a list of names that may deserve a closer look, then do your own research or talk to a licensed financial professional.