Key points
- Chip and AI infrastructure stocks got hammered Monday: Arm (ARM) fell 7.5%, Coherent (COHR) fell 5.3%, Micron (MU) fell 4.3%, AMD fell 4.2%, and Nvidia (NVDA) fell 3.5%.
- Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Palantir all finished green the same day. The selling stayed inside chip and AI infrastructure names specifically.
- Tuesday at 8:30am ET the government releases the June CPI report. Wall Street expects the annual rate to cool to about 3.9% from May's 4.2%, largely on cheaper gas.
- That gas discount reflects June, before the weekend's fresh Iran and Strait of Hormuz escalation. A calm number tomorrow doesn't make that risk disappear, it just delays when it shows up in the data.
- The Kospi trades hours before Wall Street gets the CPI number and has already triggered seven circuit breakers this year, making it the earliest real signal for how nervous markets stay overnight.
Chips got smoked today. Arm (ARM) dropped 7.5%. Coherent (COHR) dropped 5.3%. Micron (MU) dropped 4.3%. AMD dropped 4.2%. Broadcom (AVGO) and Vertiv (VRT) both fell about 4%. Nvidia (NVDA), still the most closely watched stock in the market, dropped 3.5%. If you own any of the names that carried this market the last two years, today hurt.
The selling stayed inside chips
Microsoft finished up 1.5%. Apple finished up 0.7%. Amazon finished up 0.8%. Palantir finished up 2.6%. Software and consumer tech held up fine while chip and AI infrastructure names took the hit. Money moved out of one crowded corner of the market today.
That corner has been the market's favorite trade since ChatGPT showed up. A trade this crowded doesn't need much bad news to fall hard. It also means the names that fell today are the ones that will move the most tomorrow too, in whichever direction the next headline points.
Tomorrow at 8:30am, the CPI report drops
June's CPI report lands at 8:30am ET Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The forecast itself looks almost boring: headline inflation cooling to around 3.9% from May's 4.2%, core holding near 2.9%, mostly because gas got roughly 10% cheaper in June.
On paper that sounds like good news. A cooler number usually means less pressure on the Fed to keep rates high, and a market that's already nervous tends to bounce hard on a friendly inflation print. That's the relief trade, and if it happens, some of today's chip carnage could reverse fast.
The gap in tomorrow's report
June's calmer gas prices happened while things in the Middle East had settled down. This past weekend they didn't stay settled. Oil jumped, the Kospi triggered its seventh circuit breaker of the year, and the VIX spiked as much as 7.6% intraday today on fresh Iran and Strait of Hormuz tension. None of that is in tomorrow's report. It can't be. The June data closed before any of it happened.
So even a genuinely cool CPI print tomorrow doesn't kill the real risk sitting in this market right now. It just means the next flare up in oil prices shows up in July's report instead, a month from now. A calm number tomorrow could still spark a real bounce in the beaten up chip names. Just don't confuse a good print with the all clear. The thing actually scaring people this week happened too recently to be in the data yet.
What tomorrow actually decides
I'll be watching two things closely tonight and into tomorrow. The Kospi trades hours before Wall Street even gets the CPI number, and it's already tripped seven circuit breakers this year, making it the earliest read on how nervous this Iran and Hormuz story still is. Then the CPI print lands at 8:30am and either confirms that nervousness or eases it. A hot number stacked on a market already dumping its most crowded trade could turn today into the start of something uglier, while a cool number could spark a sharp bounce in the same beaten up names. Line those two events up back to back and Tuesday is shaping up to be one of the more volatile days of the summer. I don't know which direction yet, and anyone who tells you they do is guessing.
Prices are as of the close Monday, July 13, 2026, and move fast. This is my personal opinion, not investment advice.
Related: the July 1 chip selloff damage report.
