Wire

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) popped today and I'm still long. Here's my real thesis, and why I'm ignoring the AMD rumor.

By David Han · Swing Trader / Site Operator · June 29, 2026

Disclosure: I (David Han) hold a position in $AAOI as of this writing and plan to keep holding. I am a swing trader and chart reader. I am not a financial advisor and nothing here is investment advice. Do your own research.

Key points

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) jumped about 8% today to around $147. It reversed hard after falling with the rest of the chip and optics names this morning.
The real thesis is not a rumor. AAOI raised 2026 revenue guidance above $1.1 billion. It is sitting on more than $324 million in 800G and 1.6T orders. And it is scaling production roughly 6x by year-end.
There is unconfirmed chatter on X about an AMD connection. I cannot verify it and the company has said nothing. So I am not trading on it. Disclosure: I hold a position in AAOI.

Quick one from me since people keep asking. AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) shot up about 8 percent today to around $147. And it did it the hard way. This morning it was red with the whole chip and optics complex as the AI names sold off. Then it turned and ran. I am long AAOI so keep that in mind. Let me lay out why I am holding. And why I am not getting carried away with the rumor going around.

The real thesis (this is why I'm in)

Forget the rumor for a second. The actual numbers are the reason I own this. AAOI makes optical transceivers. Those are the laser-based parts that move data around AI data centers at 800G and 1.6T speeds. It is one of the tightest and most in-demand corners of the whole AI build-out. And the company is putting up real results:

They raised 2026 revenue guidance to over $1.1 billion from $1 billion. They also guided non-GAAP operating profit above $140 million.
Q1 was a record. Revenue hit $151.1 million and rose 51 percent from a year ago. Data-center revenue jumped 154 percent to $81.4 million as 800G shipments to a big hyperscaler kicked in.
The backlog is huge. They have booked more than $324 million in 800G and 1.6T orders. One single 1.6T order is worth over $200 million.
They are scaling fast. Production goes from about 100,000 high-speed transceivers a month at the end of Q1 to a target above 650,000 a month by year-end. That is roughly a 6x ramp.

On top of that Rosenblatt lifted its price target to $220. It pointed at Amazon 800G revenue and an upcoming Oracle qualification. AAOI also landed a roughly $21 million Texas grant to build a big new transceiver plant in Sugar Land. The setup is about as good as it gets for an AI optics name. I went deep on the optics group in our piece on the photonics selloff. And on the wider chain in the AI stock map.

Now the AMD rumor, and why I'm shrugging at it

Here is the part I want to be straight about. There is chatter on X about some kind of AMD connection for AAOI. I went looking for a real source and came up empty. No company announcement. No credible report. Nothing I would hang a trade on. So I am treating it as exactly what it is. A rumor.

Would it be a big deal if it were real? Sure. AMD is ramping its own AI accelerators hard. If AAOI were a named optics supplier into that then this thing would fly. That is the fun "what if." But "would be huge if true" is not a thesis. It is a lottery ticket. I am not buying AAOI because of a post on X and you should not either. If it gets confirmed then great. That is upside on top of what I already like. If it turns out to be nothing then my reason for holding does not change. My reason was never the rumor.

The risks, because I'm not blind

This is not a one-way bet. AAOI already had a monster run. It went from the double digits up to an all-time high around $223 in May before pulling back to where it sits now. It is volatile. It can drop 10 percent in a day as easily as it can pop 9 percent. A lot of good news is already in the price. Optical transceivers are a competitive and cyclical business too. A single big customer slipping an order would sting. And rumor-driven pops like today's can give it all back just as fast. None of that breaks the thesis for me. But it is why I size it sensibly and do not bet the farm.

Bottom line: I am long AAOI for the backlog, the guidance raise and the 6x ramp into AI optics demand. The AMD talk is a maybe. It is not a reason. If you are looking at it then separate the two the way I do. And remember that I am holding so I am not exactly unbiased.

Disclosure: I hold a position in AAOI. This column is my personal opinion as a swing trader. It is not investment advice and not a research report. Prices are intraday and as of about 2:20 p.m. ET on June 29, 2026 and move fast. Do your own research and size your own risk.

Frequently asked questions

Why did AAOI stock jump today?

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) rose about 8 percent on June 29, 2026, to around $147, reversing after being down with other chip and optics names earlier in the day. The move came amid strong demand for its AI optical transceivers and unconfirmed social-media chatter about a possible AMD connection, which the company has not confirmed.

What is the bull case for Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)?

AAOI raised 2026 revenue guidance to over $1.1 billion and guided non-GAAP operating profit above $140 million. It reported record Q1 revenue of $151.1 million, up 51 percent, holds more than $324 million in 800G and 1.6T transceiver orders including one over $200 million, and is scaling production from about 100,000 to over 650,000 units a month by year-end.

Is the AAOI and AMD rumor confirmed?

No. As of late June 2026 the AMD connection is unconfirmed chatter on social media, with no company announcement or credible report. Treat it as a rumor, not a fact. If it were ever confirmed it could be a meaningful catalyst, but it is not the basis of the investment case.

What are the risks with AAOI?

AAOI is volatile and had already run to an all-time high near $223 in May 2026 before pulling back, so a lot of good news is priced in. Optical transceivers are a competitive, cyclical business with heavy customer concentration, and rumor-driven moves can reverse quickly. It is a higher-risk, higher-reward AI name.

David Han · Swing Trader / Site Operator

David Han runs AIStockWire and trades the market himself. He's a swing trader and chart reader who writes about AI and tech stocks, shares the positions he holds, and is honest about the wins and the losses. He's not a financial advisor, and nothing he writes is investment advice.