Samsung and SK Hynix (SKHY) plan a memory expansion bigger than CXMT's entire projected capacity
Key points
- Korea adds 600,000-plus wafers a month from 2028
- CXMT expected to reach 500,000 to 600,000 in total
- Chinese advanced memory has 15% of capacity, 8% of sales
- Bank still calls China a long-term threat
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (SKHY) plan to add capacity to process more than 600,000 additional wafers a month from 2028, according to the Bank of Korea. That's more than China's CXMT is expected to have in total. The Korean figure includes both DRAM and NAND memory, while CXMT's covers DRAM only. CXMT's projected capacity of 500,000 to 600,000 wafers a month depends on the first phase of its Shanghai fab, which is still under construction.
A fab is a chip factory, and wafers are the silicon discs used to make chips. DRAM holds temporary data, while NAND stores it long-term.
The added Korean capacity comes from Samsung's P4 and P5 lines in Pyeongtaek and SK Hynix's first Yongin fab, the report says. Both capacity estimates use TrendForce data and measure the number of 12-inch wafers entering production each month. The September 2 report examines China's growing semiconductor exports and their implications for Korea. It was written by the bank's China economy team, led by Lee Jun-ho, with Jeon Min-geun.
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How much of China's memory actually gets sold?
Capacity is not the same as output, and the bank is careful about that. The bank estimates that CXMT and NAND maker YMTC together account for about 15 percent of global advanced-memory production capacity this year, placing China fourth worldwide. The report defines this category as memory made using processes of 28 nanometers or smaller. Its share of sales is about 8 percent.
The bank expects CXMT's shipments to grow more slowly than its production capacity because of its technological limitations. It estimates that CXMT's sales cover only 25 to 30 percent of China's own memory demand. Most of what it makes stays at home, and the report says Chinese advanced memory is not yet at the stage of competing directly with Korean companies in export markets. The report nevertheless notes that Apple has been testing CXMT memory, citing a Wall Street Journal report from August 9, a story we followed in August.
In HBM, the stacked high-speed memory used alongside AI processors, the bank says Chinese producers still lag well behind global competitors. US export controls since 2022 have kept the most advanced chipmaking equipment out of China. Those restrictions make it harder for Chinese companies to produce newer generations of memory, and the bank expects the difference to last for some time.
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Why does the bank still call China a threat?
The report is not only good news for Korea. China's semiconductor exports rose 99.3 percent in the first seven months of the year. The bank says much of China's semiconductor export business involves Korean memory finished and packaged in China before being shipped abroad. That link helps Korean company earnings and Korea's current account today. But in the long run, the bank writes, China has built a broad industry spanning chip design, manufacturing, equipment and materials. Korea remains concentrated in memory chips, a dependence the bank sees as a long-term vulnerability. If the US-China rivalry gets worse, the supply chain link between the two countries could turn from a benefit into a burden.
Separate market data show CXMT gaining ground in DRAM. Counterpoint Research data reported by Seoul Economic Daily (서울경제) on Friday put CXMT at 10 percent of global DRAM revenue in the second quarter of 2026, its first time in double digits. Samsung held 38 percent of the market. SK Hynix held 25 percent, down from 39 percent a year earlier. CXMT reported a net profit of 77.6 billion yuan ($10.8 billion) for the first half of 2026 in its August 28 half-year report, after a loss in the same period a year before, as we covered at the time. In HBM, SK Hynix's share fell to 50 percent in the second quarter as Samsung took 33 percent.
The bank recommends investing in training and production to preserve Korea's memory-chip lead. It also calls for strengthening chip design, packaging, equipment, and materials, and developing AI models alongside the country's hardware industry.
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