Bullish Watch, week of June 29: four AI names we're watching into the July 4 week

This week's scoreboard

Week to date through the Thursday, July 2 close, the final update for this holiday-shortened week. "Open" is Monday's 9:30 a.m. Eastern open, our entry reference for the week; each close column is that day's official 4:00 p.m. close; "Week to date" is the move from the Monday open to the latest close. We refresh it each trading day. It is a holiday-shortened week, with US markets closed Friday, July 3.

How it went (final, through Thursday, July 2). Here is the honest scorecard, because that is the whole point of this list. We post the wins and the losses, and this week was a loss. It started well. Through Tuesday most of the watchlist was green and looking smart. Then the rotation out of AI hardware hit. Wednesday and Thursday were brutal. Thursday was ugly across the board. Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) fell 13.0 percent to $120.94. Micron (MU) dropped 5.6 percent and closed below $1,000 at $975.77. Qualcomm (QCOM) lost 3.1 percent to $176.25 and Arista (ANET) fell 4.0 percent to $160.08. The chip ETF (SMH) fell about 4.6 percent. Add it up and three of the four names finished the week deep in the red: Micron down 13.5 percent, AAOI down 10.7 percent, and Qualcomm down 8.7 percent. Only Arista held green at plus 0.8 percent, which is exactly what the steady pick is supposed to do. The lesson is not complicated. The money that left these names did not leave the market. It went into software. While our watchlist bled, Microsoft and the software ETF closed green. That is the rotation we flagged in the chip selloff piece playing out to the last day. The safe place this week was the one thing we did not have on the list. Micron also stayed well below the $1,100 line we said keeps its trend intact, so that momentum case is still on hold. We will post a fresh watchlist next week and grade it just as honestly.

Scoreboard prices are official 4:00 p.m. closes. The watchlist writeups below are from the original publication, intraday Thursday, June 25, 2026. This is a watchlist of names we find interesting into the week ahead, not a list of recommendations. Each pick comes with the catalyst we are watching and the risk that could sink it.

Welcome to the first edition of the Bullish Watch, our weekly look at the AI-related names we are keeping an eye on for the week ahead. The plan is simple: a few stocks each week, the specific reason we are watching each one, and an honest note on what could go wrong. We grade the batch right here on the scoreboard, every trading day. No hiding from it.

A quick calendar note first. The week of June 29 is short. With July 4 falling on a Saturday, US markets are closed Friday, July 3, so you get four trading days and likely light, jumpy volume around the holiday. Thin tape can exaggerate moves in both directions, so size accordingly.

Here are the four names.

1. Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), the catalyst pick

Price: around $138. The catalyst: first shipments of its 1.6T transceivers, part of a hyperscale order worth more than $200 million, are slated to begin around July 1.

This is the contrarian one. AAOI has been hammered, down from a May high near $233 into the $130s, and it fell again today. But the reason we are watching it is timing: a beaten-down, high-beta optics name with a concrete execution catalyst landing this week. If those first 1.6T shipments go out on schedule, it is the kind of tangible proof that can put a floor under a stock the market has left for dead. The longer-term optics story is intact, with demand sold out through the middle of 2027. We laid out the full picture in our deep dive on the photonics selloff.

The risk: the chart is broken below $150, and this is the highest-beta name in optics. If the broader chip selloff picks back up, AAOI is exactly where the most pain shows up, catalyst or not. This is a conviction position, not a sleep-well one.

2. Micron (MU), the momentum pick

Price: around $1,213, up sharply on its blockbuster earnings. The catalyst: it just reported the best quarter in its history and raised its outlook, and analysts are still catching up.

Micron delivered fiscal Q3 revenue of about $41.46 billion and guided next quarter well above what Wall Street expected, with several analysts now pushing price targets toward $2,000. The read-through is the real story: Micron is the cleanest confirmation that AI memory demand is not slowing, and that tends to lift the whole high-bandwidth memory complex. The market is rewarding proof right now, and Micron just delivered it. We covered the print in our take on the quarter.

The risk: it has already run a long way, and Micron has a habit of selling off after even great earnings as traders take profits. A stock this extended is vulnerable to any macro wobble, and the bubble-versus-dip debate has not gone away.

3. Qualcomm (QCOM), the re-rating pick

Price: around $214, up about 8 percent today. The catalyst: the company laid out aggressive AI data-center targets, and the market is starting to treat it as more than a smartphone-chip story.

Qualcomm is the cheaper, more diversified way to play AI compute, and it caught a real bid alongside Micron's report. If management keeps pushing the data-center angle, there is room for the multiple to expand from here. It does not need everything to go right to work, which is a nice change from the priciest names in the group.

The risk: the AI data-center push is early and unproven against entrenched competition. This is a show-me story, and if the narrative cools, the recent pop can fade just as fast.

4. Arista Networks (ANET), the steady pick

Price: around $168, up about 4 percent today. The catalyst: relative strength. While chips wobbled, the networking layer held up, and Arista has been one of the steadier ways to own the AI buildout.

The network is the computer when you are training a large model, and Arista sells the high-speed switches that tie thousands of accelerators together. As clusters get bigger, its content grows with them. It sits in the connectivity layer of the AI Stock Map, and it is the kind of name that holds up better than the high-beta optics plays when the tape gets choppy, which matters in a thin holiday week.

The risk: it is not cheap, and it leans on a handful of huge hyperscaler customers. Any hint that those buyers are slowing their orders would hit it hard.

Also on the radar

Two names we are watching but not putting on the official list this week: the AI-power group, where Vistra and the nuclear names keep catching a bid on the electricity-demand story we covered in AI's power problem could be nuclear's big break, and SK Hynix, whose US listing is expected to start trading around July 10, just after this week. We wrote about why the order book matters more than the listing.

How to read this

This is a watchlist, not a buy list. The point is to flag where we see a setup worth following and to be upfront about the risk on each one. We grade this batch honestly right on the scoreboard, winners and losers both, refreshed every trading day. That scoreboard is the whole point. Anyone can list stocks that are going up. Keeping receipts is what makes it worth reading.

Sources

• Applied Optoelectronics, First volume order of 1.6T data-center transceivers
• Micron Technology, Investor Relations (fiscal Q3 2026 results)
• The Motley Fool, Market indexes start July with a tale of two tech stories (Meta's cloud announcement and the July 1 chip selloff)

This is general market commentary and opinion, not investment advice. Scoreboard prices are official closing prices; the watchlist writeups are intraday as of June 25, 2026 and will move. Markets can go down as well as up, and you can lose money. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.