Key points
- Hiring slowed more than expected
- Bond yields pulled back from a 24-year high
- Oil fell on talk of a reserve release
U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected 84,000 jobs and a 4.1% jobless rate.
Markets took the weak number as a sign the Federal Reserve can hold off on another rate hike. Treasury yields fell, and Dow futures were up 455 points, or 0.9%, as of 9:15 a.m. ET. Brent crude had already slipped below $100 a barrel on a separate report about emergency fuel stocks.
What did the September jobs report show?
The BLS also cut its earlier numbers. July was revised to a loss of 10,000 jobs, from a gain of 21,000, and August's gain was lowered to 133,000 from 162,000. That's a combined downward revision of 60,000 jobs.
Health care added 17,000 jobs, construction 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000. Information services lost 10,000 jobs. CNBC highlighted the decline amid concerns about AI's effect on hiring, though the BLS report doesn't say what caused those losses. Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $37.81, and they're up 3.0% from a year earlier.
Glassdoor's employee confidence index fell in September to the lowest level in records going back to 2016, according to the Associated Press. "Employee confidence has been continuously grinding downwards over the last year," said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor, "as workers grow increasingly anxious about everything from layoffs to AI."
Why did bond yields fall?
The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.18% as of 9:10 a.m. ET, down from 5.24% at Thursday's close. On Sept. 30, it closed at 5.29%, its highest since 2002.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point in September. Friday's weaker hiring figures strengthened expectations that it would pause: market-implied odds of no change at the Oct. 27-28 meeting rose to 83.7%, according to CNBC.
| Market | Thursday close | Friday, before the open |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.24% | 5.18% |
| Dow futures | 51,241 | 51,696 |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,724 | 7,793 |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 30,761 | 31,163 |
| Brent crude | $102.31 | $99.60 |
| WTI crude | $92.87 | $89.08 |
Friday figures are as of 9:10 a.m. ET for the yield and 9:15 a.m. ET for futures and oil. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Why did oil fall below $100?
Oil was falling before the jobs data came out. European Union countries were discussing a French proposal to release 50 million barrels of diesel, alongside a proposed release of another 50 million barrels of crude by members of the International Energy Agency, according to Reuters. The report cited one unnamed source, and CNBC said it couldn't independently verify it.
As of 9:15 a.m. ET, Brent was down 2.6% at $99.60 a barrel, and the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, was down 4.1% at $89.08. Oil had settled higher on Thursday amid a report that the U.S. was sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East.
EU member states held crisis talks with the European Commission on Friday, and the bloc said it was ready to work with the IEA on a possible release of fuel reserves, according to AFP. G7 leaders were also holding a video call on fuel prices.
In a social media post on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said America's European partners "should accelerate delivery on their existing commitments and make additional supplies immediately available to address ongoing disruptions."
"American farmers, truckers, and businesses should not be left carrying the burden of a global diesel shortage," he added.
