Key points
- Sivers' foundry partner Win is expanding laser capacity
- Win expects meaningful laser revenue in 2027 and 2028
- Lumentum says AI laser demand still exceeds supply
- Sivers has published no press release since September 3
Two reports this week bear on Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE in Stockholm, SIVEF in the US), the Swedish laser maker, though neither is about Sivers itself. Win Semiconductors, the Taiwanese foundry Sivers chose as a manufacturing partner for its lasers, is expanding its capacity for continuous-wave (CW) lasers, DigiTimes reported on September 22. On September 23, Stifel said Lumentum (LITE) management told the firm that demand for its most powerful AI lasers still exceeds supply.
Sivers' Stockholm shares rose 15% over Monday and Tuesday to close at SEK 35.78 on September 22, then were down 6.9% at SEK 33.30 as of 5:06 p.m. Stockholm time on Wednesday. Sivers hasn't issued a release since September 3.
What Win said about its laser capacity
Win expects its continuous-wave laser business to develop gradually in the second half of 2026, with meaningful revenue likely in 2027 and 2028, according to DigiTimes. The pace depends on customer demand and the time needed to qualify the products for use.
The foundry also faces manufacturing and supply challenges. Its lasers use indium phosphide wafers, and major international customers supply some of those wafers and other materials. Win has tightened its inventory management.
Win currently manufactures on 4-inch wafers and is buying 6-inch wafers for process testing. High breakage rates remain a hurdle to moving production to the larger size.
Sivers announced its manufacturing partnership with Win in March 2025 to scale production of high-power distributed-feedback (DFB) lasers and laser arrays. Sivers announced a $30 million Glasgow expansion targeting annual capacity of more than 100 million CW DFB lasers, with operations expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2027, as we reported on September 4.
What Lumentum's demand outlook means for Sivers
Lumentum says demand for its ultra-high-power AI lasers still exceeds supply. In a September 23 note following an investor meeting with the company's CEO at ECOC 2026, Stifel said Nvidia's December-quarter demand had increased materially as adoption of its Spectrum-6 co-packaged optics exceeded expectations, according to Investing.com.
Co-packaged optics, or CPO, place optical components in the same package as a switch chip. Near-packaged optics, or NPO, place them nearby. "Management sees NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external laser designs lifting average selling prices," Stifel wrote. The firm maintained its Buy rating and $1,100 price target. Lumentum closed at $945.67 on September 22.
Sivers makes multi-wavelength distributed-feedback laser arrays for external light sources. Sivers demonstrated those arrays in Ayar Labs' SuperNova light source in 2022, and the companies showed a 16-wavelength version in 2024. That gives Sivers exposure to the technology Lumentum discussed, but Stifel's note did not name Sivers or establish that Sivers would receive higher prices or additional orders.
Sivers reported a negative 37% gross margin in the second quarter across its photonics and wireless businesses. Its nearer-term production plans include an unnamed LiDAR customer expected to ramp in the fourth quarter of 2026. In March, Sivers estimated that program could generate $53 million to $138 million over its lifetime; that range represents potential revenue, not booked orders.
The nearer-term milestone is the LiDAR customer's expected fourth-quarter production ramp. Glasgow's expanded capacity is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027. Win's capacity plans and Lumentum's demand outlook help explain the market Sivers is pursuing. Sivers' own orders, revenue, and margins will show how much of that opportunity it captures.
US investors can read our guide to buying Sivers shares.
