TSMC (TSM) posted a record quarter. Whether it beat its own forecast depends on the exchange rate.

TSMC logo with the text: A record NT$1.49 trillion quarter. Did it beat TSMC's own forecast?

Key points

  • TSMC's third-quarter revenue set a record
  • Sales came in above the analyst consensus
  • Full results and new guidance come October 15

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) posted record third-quarter revenue of NT$1.49 trillion, up 51% from a year earlier and above analysts’ forecasts. Its monthly sales figures, completed with the September release on October 8, put revenue 18% above the second quarter.

The total beat the NT$1.46 trillion LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 19 analysts, according to Reuters. September sales reached NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% from a year earlier but down 0.6% from August.

The dollar comparison will be clearer October 15

Reuters converted the quarterly total to $46.71 billion at a current exchange rate. That is above TSMC’s July guidance of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, but the company’s official dollar result will use the quarter’s average exchange rate.

TSMC will release that figure with its full third-quarter results and updated outlook on October 15. Analysts expect net profit to rise 64% to NT$740.8 billion, according to LSEG.

The AI chip buildout keeps lifting sales

TSMC makes chips for Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL), and the surge in revenue reflects demand for AI processors. TSMC reportedly told customers in June to prepare for price increases across its advanced chips. TSMC doesn't comment on pricing.

Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 totaled NT$3.90 trillion, up 41.1% from the same period last year.

TSMC's Taipei-listed shares closed down 1.35% on October 8, before the revenue data came out. The US-listed shares were at $466.80 in premarket trading at 9:07 a.m. ET, down 1.1% from the October 7 close, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was down 1.4%.

Frequently asked questions

What was TSMC's third-quarter 2026 revenue?

TSMC's monthly figures for July, August, and September 2026 add up to NT$1,494.2 billion, a record. That is up 51% from NT$989.92 billion a year earlier and 18% from NT$1,270.4 billion in the second quarter.

Did TSMC beat analyst estimates?

Yes. An LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 19 analysts had forecast third-quarter revenue of NT$1.46 trillion, Reuters reported.

Did TSMC beat its own third-quarter guidance?

TSMC guided for third-quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. Reuters converted the total to $46.71 billion at a current exchange rate, which is above that range, but TSMC's official dollar figure will use the quarter's average exchange rate. It reports that with full results on October 15.

When does TSMC report third-quarter earnings?

TSMC reports full third-quarter results and updates its outlook on October 15, 2026. Analysts expect net profit to rise 64% to NT$740.8 billion, according to LSEG.

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Dennis Singleton
Dennis Singleton

Dennis Singleton was born in Australia and later moved to the United States. He has spent years following the markets, but what keeps his attention is how AI is built. He writes about the companies behind the technology, from semiconductor designers and advanced packaging to photonics, memory, networking, and the hardware powering modern AI. His approach starts with filings, earnings, and industry research, then translates the important details into clear, straightforward analysis without unnecessary hype.