Key points
- Agility's sales fell to $174,000 in the first half of 2026
- Agility's $300 million robot order depends on milestones and specifications
- Agility's merger and a funding round raised about $465 million
Agility Robotics (AGLT) began trading on Nasdaq on November 5, becoming the first dedicated humanoid robot maker to go public in the US, Bloomberg reported. The shares fell below the $10 merger price within five minutes and traded at $9.40 at 11:07 a.m. ET, after reaching $11.49 and dropping as low as $8.40.
Before the merger, Churchill's shares reached $19.69 on July 6 and closed at $11.26 on November 4.
I went through the merger filing to see what investors are buying. Agility's sales fell 72% to $174,000 in the first half of 2026, and its net loss reached $361.9 million. Much of that loss came from stock-based pay.
How did Agility get to Nasdaq?
Agility merged with Churchill Capital Corp XI, a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. A SPAC is a listed shell company that raises money first, then looks for a private business to take public. Churchill's shareholders approved the deal on November 2, and it closed on November 4.
The merger valued Agility at $2.5 billion before new money came in. That's about 1,400 times its $1.78 million in 2025 sales, by our calculations.
Agility raised about $465 million across the transaction and a separate funding round, before expenses, The Robot Report reported. The total included:
- $164 million from Churchill's trust, after some shareholders took their money back.
- $201 million from a private share sale led by Foxconn.
- $100 million from a funding round that closed after the merger was announced.
The filing estimated total deal costs at about $46.1 million.
What do the sales numbers show?
| Period | Sales | Net loss | Cash used in the business |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $310,000 | $70.6 million | $70.7 million |
| 2025 | $1.78 million | $138.1 million | $99.8 million |
| First half of 2025 | $625,000 | $71.8 million | $46.2 million |
| First half of 2026 | $174,000 | $361.9 million | $86.2 million |
The filing says sales fell in the first half mainly because the prior-year period included $500,000 of one-time robot sales.
Most of Agility's sales come from related parties, meaning investors, insiders, and others with ties to the company. They accounted for about 64% of 2025 sales and 70% of first-half 2026 sales, by our calculations. The filing says the 2025 increase came mainly from sales of Digit robots to one investor, whom it doesn't name there.
Much of the increase in the loss came from stock-based pay, which doesn't use cash. That expense rose by about $252 million in the first half as the value of employee awards increased. Cash used in the business nearly doubled to $86.2 million.
Agility held $14.7 million in cash on June 30, plus $7.1 million in restricted cash. The filing says the company concluded there was substantial doubt about its ability to keep operating. That assessment didn't take the merger into account; the merger proceeds came after June 30.
What's behind the $300 million order?
Agility says Digit 5, the next version of the robot, has more than $300 million of multiyear orders. The filing puts some conditions around that number. The orders cover 1,000 Digit 5 robots under a three-year subscription contract, as of May 2026, and they depend on Agility meeting contract milestones, product features, and specifications. The filing also says the figure isn't a measure of current revenue.
The contract comes with warrants, which are rights to buy shares at a set price. The buyer's warrants vest as robots are deployed.
A note in the financial statements describes a May 2026 agreement with a customer that's "also a related party." Agility would issue 453 warrants per robot if that customer sources at least 1,000 robots, or 453,000 warrants in total. As of the June statements, the exercise price hadn't been finalized and no warrants had been issued. The filing doesn't name the customer or say this is the same contract as the $300 million order, but both date to May 2026 and both involve 1,000 robots and warrants.
Digit 5 hasn't reached customers yet. The filing says early access should begin in the first half of 2027, with wider availability over the following six to nine months.
What could one robot earn?
The filing gives management's illustrative math, and it warns that Agility may not achieve those terms with any customer. A subscription would cost $8,500 a month plus a one-time fee of about $25,000. Over the five-year life Agility assumes, that adds up to $535,000 per robot, by our calculations.
Agility estimates that each robot will cost about $150,000 to build at launch. The company targets about $75,000 at 1,000 robots a year and about $30,000 at 10,000 a year. Delivering each robot adds $15,000, and software and maintenance add $15,000 a year. At launch costs, that's $240,000 per robot over five years by our calculations, before any research or overhead.
What does Agility say could go wrong?
The filing calls humanoid robots such as Digit "unproven at scale" and warns that customers may stick with established automation. It also says Agility's deployments are concentrated with a limited number of customers.
Agility does have robots at work. The company says Digit has logged more than 65,000 hours across nine customer facilities, and its customers include Schaeffler, GXO Logistics, Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada, and Mercado Libre. The filing lists Nvidia and Amazon among its strategic investors.
Hyundai Motor's Boston Dynamics looked years away from a listing as of September, and Tesla's (TSLA) Optimus robot is one project inside a much larger company.
Existing Agility shareholders and Churchill's sponsor can't sell for 180 days after the merger closed, though the filing says that restriction ends early if the stock's volume-weighted average price, an average that gives more weight to prices where more shares traded, equals or exceeds $12 for any 15 trading days within those 180 days.
