Apple (AAPL) beats estimates but forecasts slower holiday growth as memory costs squeeze margins

Apple logo above the text: a $114.5 billion quarter, Apple forecast 7% to 10% growth for the holidays

Key points

  • Apple's earnings beat estimates as iPhone sales rise 17.5%
  • Apple forecasts slower holiday-quarter growth than analysts expected
  • Apple's inventory is now 2.5 times what it was a year ago

Apple (AAPL) reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $114.5 billion on November 2, up 12% from a year earlier and above the $113.39 billion analysts expected, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. Earnings came to $2.10 a share, ahead of the $1.98 average estimate in Robinhood's data, according to Apple's earnings release. That figure includes a 5-cent benefit from tariff refunds.

iPhone revenue rose 17.5% to $57.6 billion in the quarter that ended September 26, also a September-quarter record. Apple shares were at $324.46 in after-hours trading as of 5:43 p.m. ET.

For the December quarter, Apple forecast revenue growth of 7% to 10% from a year earlier. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected 11.4%, and Apple shares fell after the forecast. Apple expects gross margin of 45% to 46%, down from 47.9% in the September quarter, Services growth of 8% to 9%, and operating expenses of $20.4 billion to $20.8 billion.

Apple beat the forecast it gave in July

In July, Apple had forecast revenue growth of 9% to 11% and iPhone growth in the mid-teens. Revenue grew 11.7% and the iPhone grew 17.5%, by our calculations. Gross margin was 47.9%, at the top of the 47% to 48% range Apple had forecast. Apple said tariff refunds added about 1 percentage point.

Gross margin was down from 50.1% in the June quarter, by our calculations from Apple's filings, and memory chips are a big reason. Excluding tariff refunds in both quarters, "both company and products gross margin would be down about 1 point sequentially, primarily driven by higher memory costs," Kevan Parekh, Apple's chief financial officer, said on the call. He added that Apple has now received "the vast majority of the refunds related to tariffs paid," so that boost is fading.

Operating expenses were $19.19 billion, inside the $19.1 billion to $19.4 billion range. Research and development spending rose 32% from a year earlier to $11.73 billion.

This was John Ternus's first earnings report as CEO. "Our record September quarter capped off a strong fiscal 2026, with all-time record revenue of $479 billion and double-digit EPS growth," said Parekh.

Mac and China grew while iPad and wearables shrank

Mac revenue rose 23.7% to $10.8 billion. Services, Apple's second-biggest business, grew 9.8% to $31.6 billion. iPad revenue fell 10.4% to $6.2 billion, and wearables, home, and accessories fell 7.9% to $8.3 billion.

Sales in Greater China rose 21% to $17.5 billion, short of the $18.75 billion analysts expected, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates cited by Yahoo Finance. Apple plans to bring Apple Intelligence to iPhones there using Alibaba's Qwen models.

Apple's inventory has more than doubled

Apple ended September with $14.5 billion of inventory, up from $11.1 billion at the end of June and $5.7 billion a year earlier. Inventory had stayed between about $5.7 billion and $7.3 billion in every quarter from September 2024 through December 2025, according to Apple's filings.

Apple hasn't said what's in the inventory. But Ternus told CNBC that higher memory costs in the quarter were "partly offset by the benefit of carrying inventory and lower costs on non-memory components."

Apple returned $28 billion to shareholders in the quarter and declared a dividend of 27 cents a share. For the full fiscal year, revenue reached $478.8 billion, up 15% from $416.2 billion.

Frequently asked questions

How much revenue did Apple report for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026?

Apple (AAPL) reported revenue of $114.5 billion for the quarter ended September 26, 2026, up 12% from a year earlier and a record for a September quarter. Earnings were $2.10 a share, including a 5-cent benefit from tariff refunds, above the $1.98 average estimate in Robinhood's data.

How did Apple's iPhone sales do in the September 2026 quarter?

iPhone revenue rose 17.5% to $57.6 billion, a September-quarter record. In July, Apple had forecast iPhone growth in the mid-teens.

How did Apple do in China?

Apple's sales in Greater China rose 21% to $17.5 billion in the quarter ended September 26, 2026, short of the $18.75 billion analysts expected, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.

What is Apple's forecast for the December 2026 quarter?

Apple forecast revenue growth of 7% to 10% from a year earlier for the December quarter, below the 11.4% analysts polled by LSEG expected. It expects gross margin of 45% to 46% and Services growth of 8% to 9%.

Why did Apple's inventory rise?

Apple ended September 2026 with $14.5 billion of inventory, up from $11.1 billion in June and $5.7 billion a year earlier. Apple hasn't said what's in it, but CEO John Ternus told CNBC that higher memory costs were partly offset by the benefit of carrying inventory.

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David Han
David Han

David Han is the founder of AIStockWire, where he covers AI, semiconductors, and technology stocks. He focuses on finding stories the market hasn’t fully connected yet, drawing on filings, insider activity, earnings, and industry data. His commentary has been quoted by U.S. News & World Report, Moneywise, and Yahoo Finance. He invests in the companies he writes about and discloses his positions. Nothing he publishes is investment advice.