Key points
- Constellation beat third-quarter estimates by 27% to 30%
- What Constellation's forecast does and doesn't say about AI demand
- Constellation signed a 20-year, 270-megawatt nuclear deal
Constellation Energy (CEG) reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of $5.06 a share on November 9, up from $3.04 a year earlier. The result beat analyst estimates by 27% to 30%. Constellation also raised its full-year forecast.
Constellation now expects adjusted earnings of $12.50 to $12.80 a share in 2026, up from its previous range of $11.50 to $12.50. The bottom of the new range matches the top of the old one.
Analyst estimates for the quarter differed by provider: Robinhood's earnings data showed $3.89 a share, while Earnings Whispers put the consensus at $3.99.
Shares rose 2.6% to $256.50 in premarket trading at 7:36 a.m. ET, from a $249.95 close on Friday, November 6. Constellation holds its earnings call at 9 a.m. ET.
What drove the beat?
Constellation pointed to favorable market and portfolio conditions and the addition of Calpine, the power generator it bought in January 2026. Those gains were partly offset by what the company called unfavorable interest and nuclear production tax credit effects.
Revenue rose 45% to $9.55 billion from $6.57 billion a year earlier. That comparison includes Calpine, which wasn't part of Constellation a year ago. On a GAAP basis, earnings rose to $5.19 a share from $2.97.
Constellation's nuclear fleet ran at 97.2% of capacity in the quarter, excluding the Salem and South Texas Project plants, compared with 96.8% a year earlier.
How much did the forecast change?
The midpoint of the new range is $12.65 a share, up from $12.00 in the forecast Constellation gave in August.
Chief financial officer Shane Smith said the quarter "allowed us to raise the midpoint of our adjusted operating earnings guidance range for the second time this year." He also pointed to the company's "continued aggressive pace of share repurchases."
Which deals are new?
One is. Constellation signed a 20-year agreement to supply 270 megawatts of energy, capacity, and nuclear attributes from its existing nuclear fleet, starting in 2028. It's the first deal under a product it calls Peak+, and Constellation didn't name the customer.
It also signed a conditional commitment in October with the Department of Energy for a guarantee on up to $5 billion of loans to fund nuclear uprates, which squeeze more power out of existing reactors. The loans would run 30 years at 0.375 percentage points above comparable Treasury yields, if a final loan agreement is signed.
The release also recaps deals announced earlier in the quarter or since. Constellation agreed on September 10 to buy the Rhode Island State Energy Center, a 609-megawatt gas plant, from Shell for $715 million, pending regulatory approval. It also has a 20-year, 690-megawatt power agreement with Amazon tied to its Calvert Cliffs plant in Maryland, and a 20-year agreement with Google to add about 890 megawatts across 11 reactors.
Does the raised forecast say anything about AI demand?
Not much, at least not yet. Constellation credited the beat to market and portfolio conditions and the addition of Calpine. The release doesn't attribute any of the quarter's earnings to data center contracts.
The agreements highlighted in the release mostly pay off later. The new 270-megawatt agreement starts in 2028. The first uprate under the Google agreement is expected in 2028. The Calvert Cliffs expansion tied to the Amazon agreement is expected to come online between 2030 and 2032.
Constellation didn't say how much of the higher forecast comes from data center demand. The results show stronger companywide earnings, while the agreements highlighted here begin contributing over the coming years.
| Measure | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted earnings per share | $5.06 | $3.04 |
| GAAP earnings per share | $5.19 | $2.97 |
| Revenue | $9.55 billion | $6.57 billion |
Source: Constellation's November 9 earnings release.
Why does this matter after last week's selloff?
Power stocks have had a rough week. Constellation fell 6.7% on November 4, after Texas and Georgia elected governors who want to pause new data centers. Its Friday close of $249.95 is about 29% below where it ended 2025, at $353.27.
The results don't resolve concerns about how state politics could affect new data center demand. Constellation was one of the reports we flagged in our earnings week preview.
