Key points
- A weekly AI/tech watchlist: five names, ranked by how confirmed each one's bounce actually is. It is a watchlist, not a buy list.
- Week of July 13: Nebius (NBIS), Kraken Robotics (KRKNF), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Intel (INTC), and Harmonic (HLIT).
- Nebius has already turned, three straight green days off a July 7 low after the market badly overreacted to a Meta headline, and Kraken Robotics has rallied two straight sessions off its own post-acquisition low. The other three are still proving their case.
Back with the third edition of the Bullish Watch, our weekly look at AI-related names we're following into the week ahead. A Bullish Watch only earns its name if it stays current, so this week brings five new names, ranked by how confirmed each one's bounce actually is rather than grouped by theme.
This week's batch splits by conviction, not theme. Nebius already showed real buying after the market overreacted to a headline, and Kraken Robotics already has two green days behind a real acquisition catalyst. Rocket Lab is retesting a level that already held once. Intel and Harmonic are still building their case, each waiting on its own earnings date to confirm the story.
This week's list
Prices below are official closes from Friday, July 10, 2026, our reference point before the week begins. We'll add Monday's open and update this table through each day's close as the week goes on.
| Stock | Close (Fri, Jul 10) | Down from recent high |
|---|---|---|
| Nebius (NBIS) | $219.64 | -26% from $298.80 (Jun 18) |
| Kraken Robotics (KRKNF) | $4.77 | -30% from $6.84 (Apr 17) |
| Rocket Lab (RKLB) | $81.05 | -27% from $111.34 (Jun 17) |
| Intel (INTC) | $109.81 | -22% from $141.45 (Jun 22) |
| Harmonic (HLIT) | $14.04 | -15% from $16.49 (Jun 30) |
1. Nebius (NBIS), the one that already turned
Price: $219.64, down about 26% from its June 18 high of $298.80. The catalyst: on June 26, reports emerged that Meta Platforms (META) was developing its own AI cloud business, a direct threat to neocloud providers like Nebius and CoreWeave since Meta is also one of their largest customers. We covered the initial reaction when it hit: the fear alone was enough to send Nebius down 17% in a single session on July 1, its worst day, wiping out roughly $11.9 billion in market value.
What the panic missed is that nothing in Nebius's actual March 2026 agreement with Meta changed. The $12 billion dedicated-capacity tranche and the up-to-$15-billion additional-capacity commitment both still stand, and the company's 2026 guidance is unchanged. Underneath that sits the multiyear, roughly $17 billion revenue agreement Nebius signed with Microsoft (MSFT) in late 2025, still the cornerstone of its growth story. We've covered this neocloud business model in detail before: renting out GPU compute to AI labs and hyperscalers rather than running general-purpose cloud infrastructure.
Why it's ranked first: since the July 7 low of $193.68, Nebius has put together three straight green days, closing higher each session including Friday. It's the only name on this list that has actually shown committed buying, not just a stop in the selling.
The risk: the stock is still up more than 150% year to date even after the pullback, so there's real room for more giveback if the Meta-cloud story turns out to be more than a scare, and neocloud valuations broadly assume the current AI capex boom keeps compounding.
2. Kraken Robotics (KRKNF), the drone supplier that just went shopping underwater
Price: $4.77, down about 30% from its April 17 high of $6.84. The catalyst: Kraken closed its $615 million acquisition of Covelya Group on July 2, adding Sonardyne, EIVA, Voyis, and three other underwater-technology firms under one roof. The combined company's 2026 revenue guidance now sits at $290 million to $320 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $65 million to $75 million, and management expects the deal to add double-digit earnings-per-share growth in 2027.
Kraken's own business supplies batteries and sensors to underwater drone builders, part of the same defense-robotics buildout we've covered before through Red Cat (RCAT) and AeroVironment (AVAV), just underwater instead of in the air. The stock kept falling for nearly a week after the deal closed, bottoming at $4.29 on July 8, before catching its first real bid since the announcement.
Why it's ranked second: two straight green sessions off that July 8 low, up about 11%, the first real buying since the acquisition closed rather than just a pause in the selling.
The risk: part of the $615 million purchase price was paid in newly issued shares, about $135 million worth, real dilution even though it funded a guidance-raising deal. Analysts have also flagged customer concentration, with roughly 45% of revenue tied to a single client, and integration risk as Kraken absorbs six new subsidiaries at once. And unlike every other name on this list, Kraken trades over the counter (OTCQB: KRKNF) with its primary listing on Canada's TSX Venture Exchange, not Nasdaq or the NYSE, so it's meaningfully less liquid than the rest of this week's picks.
3. Rocket Lab (RKLB), retesting a level that already held once
Price: $81.05, down about 27% from its June 17 high of $111.34, roughly a 30% pullback over the past month. The catalyst: Rocket Lab posted Q1 revenue of $200.3 million, up 63.5% year over year, with a $2.2 billion backlog and a smaller-than-expected adjusted EBITDA loss. It's also moving beyond launch: an $8 billion agreement to acquire Iridium Communications, expected to close in mid-2027, would add satellite communications to its business.
The swing factor is Neutron, Rocket Lab's medium-lift rocket, still in development, with each mission projected to generate $50 million to $55 million in revenue once it's flying. Analysts are still broadly bullish: Morgan Stanley carries an Overweight rating with a $105 base case and a $293 bull case. But the stock fell 10.4% on July 7 alone as the broader market's risk-off wave hit every speculative name at once, Rocket Lab included.
Why it's ranked third: it's sitting almost exactly at the $80-81 level that held during the June 25 low, a real retest of a level that's already proven it can hold once, rather than fresh, unproven ground.
The risk: a level holding once doesn't guarantee it holds twice. The primary risk analysts flag is a further Neutron slip past Q4 2026, and if the broader tape rolls over again, this floor isn't guaranteed to catch it.
4. Intel (INTC), the one with the government as a shareholder
Price: $109.81, down about 22% from its June 22 high of $141.45. What sets Intel apart from everything else on this list: the U.S. government owns roughly 10% of the company, having bought 433.3 million shares at $20.47 each for about $8.9 billion, funded partly by CHIPS Act money. That's a real, unusual floor of political backing underneath the stock that none of the other four names have.
The drop itself came on sector-wide valuation concerns and reports that Intel's next-generation 18A manufacturing process may not hit profitable yields until 2026 or 2027, tempering the foundry turnaround story even as HSBC doubled its price target to $200 and reports circulated of foundry customer talks with Apple and Google. We've written before about what a chip foundry actually does, which is the business Intel is trying to build a second act around.
Why it's ranked fourth: it bounced off a $104.41 low on July 8 but has faded since, down to $109.81 today. That's still choppy, not confirmed.
The risk: Intel reports Q2 earnings on July 23. Management's read on 18A yields and foundry revenue that day will likely matter more than anything the chart does between now and then.
5. Harmonic (HLIT), a real beat-and-raise waiting on its own earnings date
Price: $14.04, down about 15% from its June 30 high of $16.49, the smallest drawdown on this list. The catalyst: Harmonic sold its video business to MediaKind for $145 million in cash in June, simplifying into a pure-play broadband company, and its Q1 broadband revenue was up 43% year over year with earnings per share beating estimates by 70%, prompting a raised full-year outlook.
Why it's ranked fifth: two green days off the July 7 low on relatively light volume (Harmonic trades a fraction of the shares the other names on this list do), with real fundamentals underneath but nothing dramatic yet in the chart itself.
The risk: earnings land July 27, and that date is the real event here, not the current price action. A thinly traded stock like this can gap hard in either direction on the print.
Also on the radar
Two groups we looked at hard and left off this week's list. The quantum computing basket (QBTS, RGTI, IONQ, QUBT) has a real catalyst underneath it, the CHIPS Act's $100 million government equity stakes in D-Wave and Rigetti, but every name in the group was still red into Friday's close with no confirmed turn yet. Oracle (ORCL) is down about 25% since mid-June, a steep drop for a mega-cap, but it looks tied to a specific worry over the debt Oracle is taking on to fund its AI data center buildout rather than the broad, sentiment-driven selling that hit the five names above. Worth a second look if either group shows a real, confirmed bottom.
How to read this
This is a watchlist, not a buy list. Every name here got cheaper for a real, identifiable reason, whether that's a headline overreaction, a broad risk-off week, a looming earnings date, or active dilution, and every name also has a real case for why the market's read on it might be too harsh in places. Nebius and Kraken Robotics are the clearest examples of names that have already started to prove that case, through real buying; the other three still have to. We'll track this batch through the week and grade it just as honestly next Friday, winners and losers both go on the scoreboard.
Sources
- TradingKey, Rocket Lab's backlog, launches, and Neutron timeline
- Yahoo Finance, Intel's next chapter: government backing, foundry ambitions, and AI partnerships
- SEC filing, Harmonic completes video business sale to MediaKind
- StockTitan, Kraken Robotics closes Covelya acquisition, lifts 2026 outlook
- Related coverage: Neoclouds drop on Meta cloud news
- Related coverage: Drone stocks rally: AVAV, ONDS, RCAT
- Related coverage: Bullish Watch, week of July 6
- Related coverage: What is a neocloud?
- Related coverage: What is a chip foundry?
- Price data via Robinhood market data
This is general market commentary and opinion, not investment advice. Prices reflect official closing prices as of Friday, July 10, 2026, and will move. Markets can go down as well as up, and you can lose money. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.
