Key points
- Meta is testing a prediction app called Takes with employees
- One Takes question asks whether Tim Cook will lead Nvidia
- Polymarket’s real-money odds on Cook for Nvidia’s permanent job
Meta Platforms (META) is testing a prediction app called Takes with employees, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. Users wager virtual currency called “cred” on future events, earning points for correct predictions and losing them for wrong ones. No real money is involved.
One question on the app asked whether former Apple CEO Tim Cook will become the next chief executive of Nvidia (NVDA), according to the report. The project was previously called Arena, after CEO Mark Zuckerberg directed a team to build a prediction-market product. The Journal said there's no indication of when, or whether, Meta will release Takes to the public.
Meta shares closed at $641.69, up 2.9% from Thursday's close of $623.61.
Meta's earlier plan used AI to write and settle the questions
In June, NPR reported that Zuckerberg had told a team to build a standalone app called Arena, based on internal Meta documents. The documents said users would get "a daily virtual allotment" of "play money" to bet on future events.
According to those documents, the app would use Meta's Llama model to generate questions from trending topics, and AI would also decide whether each event happened. The documents called the app a "rebuild" of Forecast, a crowdsourced prediction app Meta released in 2020 and wound down two years later. They cited "the operational cost of manual question curation" as the reason Forecast was shut down.
Gaming lawyer Daniel Wallach told NPR that launching without real money could give Meta more time to apply for a license from federal regulators. Kalshi and Polymarket, which let users trade with real money, face legal challenges from several states over whether their contracts are illegal gambling.
Polymarket traders give Cook about a 5% chance at the permanent job
Polymarket runs a real-money market on who Nvidia will name as Huang's permanent successor. Interim CEOs don't count under the market's rules, and it runs through Dec. 31, 2028. The market opened on Nov. 10 and has had about $1.5 million in trading volume. A price of 4.5 cents on a contract that pays $1 implies a 4.5% probability.
| Candidate | Polymarket price, 4 p.m. ET Nov. 13 | Trading volume so far |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Buck | 23.5% | $259,000 |
| Rene Haas | 20.6% | $79,000 |
| Colette Kress | 10.1% | $264,000 |
| Johny Srouji | 7.8% | $36,000 |
| Tim Cook | 4.5% | $265,000 |
Source: Polymarket "Next CEO of NVIDIA?" market. Volume is the total value of contracts traded since the market opened, not the money at stake now. Prices can move sharply on light trading.
Trading in the Cook contract opened at 10:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 12, 11 minutes after President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Cook should replace Jensen Huang. In hourly price data, the contract has stayed between 4.5% and 6.5% since. A separate Polymarket contract on whether Nvidia names a new CEO by Dec. 31 was at 24.5%.
Nvidia's board says it hasn't engaged any candidates
Nvidia's board said on Friday that it is still choosing a search firm, CNBC reported. "We have not formally engaged any potential candidates," the board said. "Any speculation regarding individual candidates, whether internal or external, is premature."
Chief financial officer Colette Kress has been interim CEO since Huang resigned on Nov. 12.
