Key points
- SpaceX and Tesla could announce a merger as soon as December
- Polymarket traders nearly tripled the odds of a SpaceX-Tesla announcement this year
- Musk says a Tesla vote would need a majority of outstanding shares
SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) are making progress in merger talks and could announce a deal as soon as December, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. The two companies have also discussed a timeline in which the announcement slips into early 2027, according to the report.
Bloomberg described a deal as potentially the biggest ever. The companies haven't announced terms, so there's no deal price yet. For comparison, at Thursday's closing prices, SpaceX was worth about $1.90 trillion and Tesla about $1.57 trillion, or about $3.47 trillion combined.
Tesla closed at $397.45, up 1.7%. SpaceX closed at $139.94, up 0.1%. The report was published at 3:09 p.m. ET, and Tesla shares were at $390.10 at 3:05 p.m.
Elon Musk, who runs both companies, called a merger a "good idea" last month, Reuters reported. SpaceX and Tesla couldn't immediately be reached for comment, according to Reuters.
Prediction-market traders raised their odds
Traders on Polymarket, a prediction market, sharply raised the odds of an announcement after the report. A price of 29 cents on a contract that pays $1 implies a 29% probability. These prices can move sharply on light trading, and they aren't a forecast that a deal will close.
| Merger announced by | 2:30 p.m. ET | About 4:10 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Dec. 31, 2026 | 10% | 29% |
| Jan. 31, 2027 | 18.5% | 44% |
| Feb. 28, 2027 | 26.5% | 53% |
| June 30, 2027 | 54% | 61% |
| Dec. 31, 2027 | 67.5% | 73.5% |
Source: Polymarket price history for Nov. 12, 2026. The contracts pay out on an official announcement, not a completed deal.
The end-of-2026 contract is the most heavily traded of the five, with about $379,000 in trading so far. The others have traded between about $60,000 and $108,000 each. On Nov. 5, the end-of-2026 contract was at 9.5%.
An announcement isn't the last step
Both companies would still need approvals after an announcement. SpaceX's quarterly report, filed Oct. 22, says a combination would need "further approval by our special committee, our board of directors and our controlling shareholder." That controlling shareholder is Musk.
Tesla's side would need its special committee's recommendation and "any necessary shareholder approval," according to Tesla's quarterly report. Musk said in October that a merger would need a majority of all outstanding Tesla shares, not just a majority of the votes cast. With 3,952,757,946 shares outstanding as of Oct. 15, that's about 1.98 billion votes in favor. We worked through who gets a vote and how many shares Musk controls.
Tesla holds its annual meeting on Dec. 3. Its proxy statement lists three proposals, and none of them is a merger.
Analysts had given different timelines
Barclays said in mid-October that a deal could be announced before Tesla's annual meeting, CNBC reported. Days later, Musk confirmed that both companies had formed special committees to evaluate a merger.
Gordon Johnson, CEO of GLJ Research, said last week that the merger's problem is "timing and scrutiny." "The plan was to announce in the first half of 2027 and close while Trump is still in office," Johnson said. He added that a merger vote would now play out "while Democrats hold subpoena power."
