Key points
- Nebius beats on revenue, then trims its 2026 outlook
- Nebius moves part of Microsoft's capacity into 2027
- Nebius plans up to $45 billion of 2027 spending
Nebius Group (NBIS) shares fell 17.8% to $127.21 by 10:42 a.m. ET on November 12, after the AI cloud company said delays at third-party data centers would push some capacity into 2027.
Nebius reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million, up 571% from a year earlier and above the $907.5 million analysts expected, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. But Nebius now expects full-year revenue at the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion forecast.
Other AI cloud stocks also fell. CoreWeave (CRWV) was down 6.7% and IREN (IREN) was down 8.6% at 10:42 a.m. ET. Nebius had closed at $154.69 on November 11, after a 15.4% gain that day.
About $325 million of the quarter's revenue was non-recurring, according to founder and CEO Arkady Volozh's letter to shareholders. That revenue came from an initial phase of Nebius' asset-light model, in which partners deploy Nebius' architecture and cloud platform on capacity they pay for. Without it, quarterly revenue would have been about $656 million, or $980.8 million minus $325 million. Nebius didn't report that $656 million figure itself.
Third-party data center delays pushed some 2026 revenue into next year
Nebius moved some expected revenue and capacity into 2027. "Some third-party capacity we expected to come online this year is now scheduled for the first half of 2027," Volozh wrote. "The contracts behind that capacity remain in place."
FactSet's consensus was $3.35 billion of 2026 revenue, near the top of the range. Nebius has reported $1.96 billion of revenue for the first nine months of the year, according to its earnings release. To reach $3.0 billion, Nebius needs about $1.04 billion in the fourth quarter, or $3.0 billion minus $1.96 billion.
Nebius had forecast annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) of $7 billion to $9 billion by December. ARR takes one month's revenue and multiplies it by 12. "We now expect ARR to exceed $7 billion for the month of February, a shift of about two months, even before New Jersey ramps up to full capacity," the letter says. ARR was $6.4 billion at the end of September. Nebius said it no longer sees ARR as the right measure of its business, and from 2027 the company will give guidance for revenue, pre-tax earnings, and capacity.
The company kept its 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin forecast at about 40%.
Part of Microsoft's New Jersey capacity moves to the second quarter of 2027
Nebius serves Microsoft (MSFT) from a site in Vineland, New Jersey, that DataOne is developing. Nebius now expects to have delivered more than half of the capacity contracted with Microsoft by the end of 2026. The remaining tranches are scheduled for the second quarter of 2027.
"In late Q3, DataOne started to retire some of the site's temporary generation ahead of the move to permanent power. That decision reset the schedule for the remaining tranches," Volozh wrote. Nebius said fuel cells from Bloom Energy (BE) will be the site's main power source, and that Bloom generation is already running. New Jersey fined DataOne $1.07 million in September over unpermitted generators at the site.
Delivery dates at several other colocation sites also moved into the first half of 2027, the letter says. Nebius said all affected customers have been kept informed.
Nebius raised its 2026 spending forecast to $27 billion
Nebius now expects capital expenditures of about $27 billion this year, above its earlier range of $20 billion to $25 billion. The company said the extra spending is for 2027 capacity, especially at sites it owns. Nebius spent about $7.3 billion in the third quarter alone.
The first outlook for 2027 calls for revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion and capital expenditures of $40 billion to $45 billion. Volozh said the revenue range reflects "a conservative approach to the pace of our build-out." Nebius expects to reach pre-tax breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2027.
| Forecast | Nebius | FactSet consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 revenue | Low end of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion | $3.35 billion |
| 2026 capital expenditures | About $27 billion | $23.85 billion |
| 2027 revenue | $12 billion to $13 billion | $12.09 billion |
| 2027 capital expenditures | $40 billion to $45 billion | $28.77 billion |
Nebius expects customer prepayments, plus financing against its existing contracts with investment-grade customers, to cover 75% to 85% of its 2027 capital expenditures. The company expects $10 billion of committed customer prepayments in 2026 and $17 billion to $20 billion in 2027. Prepayments on deals signed in the third quarter covered more than 100% of the related capital spending, up from 50% to 60% on second-quarter deals, the letter says.
Nebius sold $5.75 billion of convertible notes in August, raised about $1.0 billion in net proceeds through its at-the-market stock program in the third quarter, and signed a $3.5 billion senior secured facility with Citi in October. Nebius had $7.4 billion in cash at the end of September.
Nebius signed more than $12 billion of contracts since July
Customers have committed more than $12 billion in contract value since the start of the third quarter, according to the letter. Remaining performance obligations, the contracted revenue Nebius has yet to recognize, were $38.7 billion at the end of September, up 3% from $37.5 billion at the end of June.
Prices on third-quarter deals rose more than 20% per GPU-hour on average from the second quarter, Nebius said. Databricks, Datadog (DDOG), and Snowflake (SNOW) signed multi-year agreements with Nebius for the first time.
| Third quarter | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $980.8 million | $146.1 million |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $465.8 million | Loss of $5.2 million |
| Net loss from continuing operations | $37.5 million | $119.6 million |
| Loss per share | 13 cents | 50 cents |
| Purchases of property, equipment, and intangibles | $7.30 billion | $955.5 million |
Revenue from the Nebius AI cloud business rose 643% to $973.8 million, about 99% of the total. That business had adjusted EBITDA of $518.2 million, a 53.2% margin. Results for every AI company that has reported this season are on our AI earnings scoreboard.
Nebius expects to have 5 gigawatts of contracted power by the end of 2026, up from more than 4 gigawatts now.
