Key points
- SpaceX's AI spending takes focus
- Netflix faces its own revenue forecast
- Meta's capital spending outlook
- Tesla's margins and SpaceX investment
SpaceX (SPCX) and Netflix (NFLX) report third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, Oct. 20, followed by Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday, Oct. 21. Their reports will give investors a fresh look at AI spending, profit margins, and revenue growth after the Nasdaq's worst week since late June.
The table below groups the companies by reporting date, with share prices and market values as of the Oct. 19 close. Market values and consensus earnings-per-share estimates come from Robinhood, whose earnings calendar does not specify whether the estimates are adjusted or GAAP.
| Company | Reports | EPS estimate | Oct. 19 close | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (SPCX) | Oct. 20, after close | $0.16 | $147.96 | $2.01 trillion |
| Netflix (NFLX) | Oct. 20, after close | $0.82 | $69.85 | $291 billion |
| Meta (META) | Oct. 21, after close | $5.89 | $705.44 | $1.80 trillion |
| Tesla (TSLA) | Oct. 21, after close | $0.40 | $368.06 | $1.45 trillion |
SpaceX's AI spending takes focus
SpaceX spent $18.4 billion on capital investment in the second quarter, including $15.8 billion on its AI segment. Its second earnings report as a public company will show how that spending is developing alongside revenue, which analysts expect to reach about $12.7 billion in the third quarter, according to a Bloomberg consensus cited by Yahoo Finance.
In the second quarter, revenue rose 92% to $7.8 billion, while the net loss narrowed to $541 million. Adjusted EBITDA, a profit measure that excludes interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and certain other items, reached $3.5 billion.
Starlink's subscriber growth and revenue per user are also worth watching. The service ended June with 12 million subscribers, double the number a year earlier, but average monthly revenue per user fell to $66 from $85.
Investors will also look for confirmation that SpaceX completed its $60 billion purchase of AI coding company Cursor. The company previously said it expected the deal to close in the third quarter.
As of the Oct. 19 close, options prices implied a move of about 7% in either direction through Oct. 21. That window includes trading before the earnings release as well as the market's response afterward.
Netflix has to match its own forecast
Netflix forecast third-quarter revenue of $12.86 billion in its July shareholder letter, up 11.7% from a year earlier. Netflix projected an operating margin of 33.2%, up from 28.2% a year ago, and diluted earnings of $0.82 a share.
Netflix says its guidance is its actual internal forecast at the time of each report. In July, the company narrowed its 2026 revenue forecast to $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion and kept its operating margin target at 31.5%. The company also projected that ad revenue would roughly double this year, to about $3 billion, and expects free cash flow of about $12.5 billion.
Meta's revenue range and capex guidance
Meta guided to third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion, assuming foreign currency trims growth by about 1 percentage point. Second-quarter revenue was $60.8 billion, up 28%.
Meta expects 2026 capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion, including principal payments on finance leases. In July, the company narrowed that range from $125 billion to $145 billion. Second-quarter capex was $31.08 billion. Meta also raised the low end of its full-year expense outlook, to $165 billion to $169 billion, to include $2.4 billion of legal charges booked in the second quarter.
Meta earned $6.18 a share in the second quarter, down 13% from $7.14 a year earlier. The $5.89 estimate for this quarter is lower still. Meta has also flagged youth-related trials in the US this year that the company says could have a material impact on its results.
Tesla's margin and its SpaceX stake
Tesla's car numbers are mostly out. The company delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating forecasts, but deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours of energy storage, below the 15.9 GWh analysts expected.
Margin is the bigger question. In the second quarter, Tesla's revenue rose 26% to $28.24 billion, but adjusted earnings of 33 cents a share missed estimates, and the operating margin was 1.4%. Net income of $1.11 billion included a $1.005 billion gain on Tesla's SpaceX stake.
SpaceX shares fell 11.7% during the third quarter, from $170.86 on June 30 to $150.86 on Sept. 30, by our calculations. Investors will watch how that move shows up in Tesla's results this time.
On the call, investors also want numbers on robotaxis, Full Self-Driving subscriptions, and the Optimus robot. Tesla had 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions at the end of June. Our Tesla preview looks at how much of Tesla's value Morningstar puts in those businesses.
