Key points
- AST SpaceMobile moves its 45-satellite target again
- Which AST SpaceMobile BlueBirds have a launch plan
- What AST SpaceMobile's year-end service plan covers
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) now targets about 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by the middle of 2027, according to its third-quarter release. In March, the goal was 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026.
AST put out the release at 4:30 p.m. ET on November 9, after the market closed. Its shares had finished the day at $36.89, up 14.1% from Friday's close of $32.33, and were at $37.32 in after-hours trading at 7:26 p.m. ET.
How has the target moved this year?
It's moved in steps. On March 2, AST was aiming for 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, with launches every one to two months on average. On May 11, chief executive Abel Avellan said "Our network deployment for 2026 is targeting approximately 45 satellites in orbit." That kept 2026 as the year but dropped the top of the range.
Then came a July 15 filing, made the day AST announced a convertible note sale. Based on what it expected about launch availability, AST said its "launch campaign is targeting approximately 45 of its BlueBird satellites" in early 2027. The November release moves the target to the middle of 2027, and this time it's a count of satellites in orbit.
In April, a New Glenn rocket from Blue Origin left BlueBird 7 in a lower-than-planned orbit. The cash flow statement in Monday's release shows $32.4 million of insurance money received from that launch through September.
Which BlueBirds have a launch plan?
Twelve BlueBirds are in orbit and working, numbers 1 through 6 and 8 through 13, according to AST's investor presentation. The release lays out plans for 12 more.
BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 shipped to Cape Canaveral in September, and they're still waiting for SpaceX (SPCX) to confirm a launch date. BlueBirds 17, 18, and 19 should ship by the end of November for a Blue Origin launch AST expects early in the first quarter of 2027. BlueBirds 20 through 25 ship in December and January, for launches AST expects during that same quarter. AST says those launches carry a rating under the Defense Priorities and Allocations System, a federal program that requires suppliers to fill orders tied to national defense ahead of other work.
Add those 12 to the 12 already up and you get 24, if every launch goes as planned. That leaves about 21 more satellites to get into orbit by the middle of 2027. The release doesn't say which rockets will carry them. It says launch agreements with SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others now cover a total of more than 100 BlueBirds, which AST expects to deploy cumulatively between 2027 and 2028. AST doesn't say in the release or the presentation whether that total includes the 12 satellites already operating.
On the factory side, AST says it's now building satellites through BlueBird 51 at two plants in Texas, and it expects to reach a production rate of six satellites a month in December. Starting with BlueBird 34, the satellites use AST's custom chip, which the company says gives 10 times the processing bandwidth of its older Block 1 satellites. AST's own rocket, Blacklift, could carry up to five BlueBirds per launch starting in late 2028.
What did the quarter's results show?
Revenue was $42.3 million, up from $14.7 million a year earlier and $31.5 million in the second quarter. AST credited gateway deliveries and milestones on U.S. government contracts. Gateways are the ground stations that connect the satellites to phone carriers' networks.
The net loss for AST's shareholders was $132.4 million, or 44 cents a share, compared with a loss of 45 cents a share a year earlier.
The company kept its forecast of $150 million to $200 million in revenue for 2026, "with upside based on recent contract signatures." AST had $88.6 million through September, so the fourth quarter would need $61.4 million to $111.4 million to land in that range.
AST had about $3.2 billion in cash and restricted cash at the end of September. The release also points to about $1.0 billion from Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, through a satellite program with Rakuten. That money doesn't require AST to sell new shares. AST also won a U.S. Space Force contract for space-based sensing that it puts at about $100 million in revenue. It says it has 16 U.S. government awards to date.
What does year-end service mean?
AST says it expects "initial, intermittent nationwide coverage" in key markets by the end of 2026. The first partners are in the United States, Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom. In its August 10 release, AST had described its 2026 plan as a beta service, offering "scaled non-commercial usage" with partner carriers in select markets.
The company also says it validated what it calls the first satellite beam handovers between land-based and space-based cellular networks, with AT&T (T) in the United States, using regular smartphones. AST also received authorization for commercial service in Brazil, using a combined 50 MHz of S-band and low-band spectrum. In October, it announced deals with four Brazilian carriers.
The release doesn't give a launch date for BlueBirds 14 through 16, the satellites already sitting at the Cape. AST scheduled a call with investors for 5 p.m. ET on November 9.
