Key points
- YMTC of China is seeking about $4.9 billion in a Shanghai listing, with the proceeds intended to increase NAND memory output.
- Counterpoint Research's second-quarter shipment data put YMTC in third place globally at 14%, ahead of Kioxia and behind Samsung's 25% and SK Hynix's 22%.
- YMTC poses a genuine competitive risk in commodity NAND, but it is not challenging the more profitable HBM business that generates money for Samsung and SK Hynix.
China's biggest NAND flash maker is going public to catch Samsung and SK Hynix. YMTC's parent, CCSH, had its listing application accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and it plans to raise about 33 billion yuan, near 6.8 trillion won ($4.9 billion). And it comes at a point where YMTC is no longer easy to wave off. In the second quarter it passed Kioxia to become the world's third-biggest NAND maker.
The market-share numbers come from Counterpoint Research. In the second quarter Samsung still led NAND at 25%, with SK Hynix and its Solidigm arm second at 22%. YMTC came third at 14%, just past Kioxia, which was also near 14%, and Micron was fifth at 13%. A year ago YMTC sat well behind the leaders, and now it's in third.
On the Shanghai exchange's tech board, this would be the third-biggest chip listing yet, after the DRAM maker CXMT and the foundry SMIC. YMTC wants to put about 20.8 billion yuan into production lines and another 12.2 billion yuan into research. The listing would value the company between 275 billion and 330 billion yuan, about 56.8 trillion to 68.1 trillion won. Its technology is a homegrown 3D design called XtStacking, and it's pushing toward NAND stacked more than 300 layers high.
The growth behind the filing is what should worry Seoul. YMTC pulled in 47 billion yuan of revenue in the first quarter alone, near 9.7 trillion won, and that one quarter beat all of its 2024 revenue of 45.2 billion yuan. Korean investors already watched this in DRAM, where CXMT went public and pressured Samsung and SK Hynix. The same pressure is now reaching NAND.
The threat has limits, though, and they matter. NAND is the cheaper, lower-margin side of memory, and it doesn't have the shortage the AI boom created in the high bandwidth memory that Samsung and SK Hynix sell to Nvidia. YMTC is also boxed in by US export controls, which keep it from buying some of the best equipment and limit how much it can sell abroad, so most of its revenue comes from Chinese customers. On product quality in overseas markets, it still trails Samsung and Micron. The pressure it puts on Samsung and SK Hynix lands on the cheap end of memory, where margins are thin to begin with.
Korean investors felt it anyway on Tuesday, when Samsung and SK Hynix wobbled during the session on the YMTC filing and on reports that Apple may buy Chinese memory. Both came back by the close. Samsung ended up 1.75% at 261,500 won ($189) and SK Hynix rose 0.60% to 1,688,000 won ($1,221), as the rest of the chip stocks turned higher before Nvidia's results. The Kospi closed up 0.97% at 6,808.21.
Sources:
- 헤럴드경제, 삼전닉스 추격하는 中 반도체, on the NAND market share and YMTC passing Kioxia
- 서울경제, 中 낸드 강자 YMTC 상장 신청, on the fund allocation, valuation and technology
- 아주경제, 中 낸드 YMTC IPO 신청서 수리, on the listing acceptance and the amount raised
- 이코노미스트, 삼성전자 26만 SK하이닉스 170만 돌파, on the Tuesday close for Samsung and SK Hynix
Our earlier coverage:
- CXMT's listing and what it meant for Samsung and SK Hynix.
- SK Hynix, Kioxia and the fight for second place in NAND.
Won and yuan figures are converted to US dollars at exchange rates near 1,383 won and 190 won to the yuan. This is not investment advice.
