AI stock battle week 8: DeepSeek still leads, but the crowded AI stocks all fell (September 12, 2026)

Six robots labelled Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT, Grok, DeepSeek and Meta AI standing in a row on a pink background, with the headline "The crowded picks all went down"

AI stock battle, week 8. Photo illustration by AIStockwire.

Key points

  • DeepSeek still leads at $11,180.79 and the leaderboard was unchanged.
  • Every stock three or more models own fell this week.
  • Claude held all five and was the only model that gained.

Eleven of the 17 stocks in our AI contest went up this week. Five of the six AI models still lost money. Almost every stock that rose was one a single model owned, and by Saturday night two models had sold the most popular stock in the contest.

If you're new here: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek and Meta AI each got $10,000 in fake money. Five AI stocks apiece, nothing over $10 billion, one chance to change picks every Saturday. We rank them by how much money is left. Six portfolios of five is 30 slots, and this week those slots held 17 different companies. The full rules are here.

All prices are the last trade before 8 p.m. Eastern on Friday, September 11. Monday was Labor Day, so the market opened only four days.

ModelAccount valueTotal returnThis week
DeepSeek$11,180.79+11.81%-1.44%
Gemini$10,716.08+7.16%-1.47%
Grok$10,409.64+4.10%-2.03%
ChatGPT$9,899.28-1.01%-1.71%
Claude$9,412.98-5.87%+1.52%
Meta AI$9,016.34-9.84%-1.37%

Account values at the September 11, 2026 settle.

Nobody moved in the standings all week. ChatGPT finished below its starting $10,000 for the first time, so three of the six are now under water.

The more models owned a stock, the worse it did

Here's the part I didn't expect. Line the 17 stocks up by how many models own them.

StockModels holding itSept 11This week
SoundHound AI (SOUN)5$6.27-6.97%
BigBear.ai (BBAI)4$2.88-1.38%
Innodata (INOD)3$53.78-3.27%
Ambarella (AMBA)2$67.72+7.00%
Applied Digital (APLD)2$26.46+0.49%
Rigetti Computing (RGTI)2$15.26+0.33%
C3.ai (AI)2$10.50+0.29%

Week change is September 4 to September 11, 2026. The other ten stocks have a single owner each; six rose, four fell.

Every stock owned by three or more models fell. Every stock owned by exactly two rose. The ten with a single owner were a coin flip.

SoundHound matters most. Five of the six bought it in week one and five still owned it going in. It fell four days out of four, on no company news.

No contest company reported earnings, so the week came down to rates. Friday's inflation report ran hot and CME's FedWatch tool put the odds of a September 16 rate hike at 86.3%. Going by the main sector funds, software stocks fell 2.9% on the week while chip stocks rose 0.3%.

Claude held everything again

Third week running with no trades, from fifth place, and it was the only model that made money. Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC) rose 5.99%, Ambarella 7.00% and Rambus (RMBS) 2.32%, adding $299.88, while UiPath (PATH) gave back $163.47. That left Claude up $141.38. Argan (AGX) supplied the only company news, dropping 7.93% on a bearish Piper Sandler initiation Wednesday morning and raising its dividend 40% that same afternoon.

UiPath is the one I'd want explained: down another 9.49%, 15.38% below what Claude paid, the contest's worst performer two weeks running. Claude's case for holding is that no bad news came out about the business, Citigroup started covering it with a buy rating on Tuesday, and the whole software group was falling with it. It also says it looked for a replacement and found nothing, fourth week straight. Everything eligible is another chip stock, another contractor, or a company losing money.

Then two models sold SoundHound

The other models sent their picks in after I'd written that, and this part I'd have bet against.

ChatGPT sold SoundHound at $6.27 for a small gain and put all of it into Aeva Technologies (AEVA), a lidar company, at $15.44. Meta AI sold at the same price for a 14.34% loss, dropped Ambarella, and split the money between C3.ai at $10.50 and Applied Digital at $26.46.

That drops SoundHound from five owners to three, its first time in fewer than five portfolios since week one. Two models made that decision the same day, in separate chats, from a prompt that never mentions crowding.

One thing I won't let slide. Meta AI said it was buying C3.ai "at 52-week lows." It wasn't: the stock closed at $10.50, nowhere near its $7.675 low from March. The pick is legal. The reason is wrong.

DeepSeek got rejected, then finally traded

Second week running that DeepSeek had a pick thrown out. It wanted to sell C3.ai and buy Guardforce AI (GFAI), calling it "a sub-$1 share price that fits the contest's small-cap mandate." That is the problem, not the selling point.

  • Share price $0.37, against a $2 minimum.
  • About $75,000 traded a day, against a $5 million minimum.
  • Nasdaq lists it as out of compliance.
  • Market cap $11.50 million, against the $11.33 million DeepSeek reported. That one it got right.

The market cap is the number these models normally get wrong. This time it misread the rule, not the data.

I gave it another shot and the second pick is fine. DeepSeek sold C3.ai at $10.50 and put all $2,576.78 into Rezolve AI (RZLV) at $2.30. It called that company $2.1 billion when it was $957 million on Friday, but both are well under the limit.

This is DeepSeek's first completed trade of the entire contest, eight weeks in, from first place. It sold its biggest and best-performing stock, up 28.84%, for a money-losing British company trading 73% below its own high. Grok is now the only model that has never traded.

Shares and values are rounded; account totals use full precision. Anything bought this Saturday is priced at its entry, so it shows no change yet.

DeepSeek, $11,180.79

TickerSharesEntrySept 11Value
RZLV1,120.83$2.30$2.30$2,576.78
PDYN404.86$4.94$5.75$2,329.76
RGTI141.14$14.17$15.26$2,153.85
BBAI723.33$2.77$2.88$2,083.04
SOUN324.94$6.16$6.27$2,037.37

DeepSeek has led for four straight weeks.

Gemini, $10,716.08

TickerSharesEntrySept 11Value
AI342.81$9.13$10.50$3,599.46
OUST82.19$38.08$35.40$2,909.61
APLD76.94$27.12$26.46$2,035.81
BBAI380.53$2.74$2.88$1,095.85
SOUN171.51$6.08$6.27$1,075.35

C3.ai is 33.6% of Gemini's account, the biggest position in the contest.

Grok, $10,409.64

TickerSharesEntrySept 11Value
AEHR26.21$76.30$95.00$2,490.17
BBAI723.33$2.77$2.88$2,083.04
SOUN324.94$6.16$6.27$2,037.37
INOD35.77$55.91$53.78$1,923.81
SERV415.80$4.81$4.51$1,875.26

ChatGPT, $9,899.28

TickerSharesEntrySept 11Value
RGTI141.14$14.17$15.26$2,153.85
AEVA131.95$15.44$15.44$2,037.37
CAMT13.53$147.85$147.90$2,000.68
INOD35.77$55.91$53.78$1,923.81
APLD67.41$25.52$26.46$1,783.58

Claude, $9,412.98

TickerSharesEntrySept 11Value
RMBS26.95$91.48$86.97$2,343.91
KLIC23.87$89.26$86.50$2,065.07
AMBA29.38$68.07$67.72$1,989.72
PATH113.36$16.26$13.76$1,559.84
AGX3.52$568.93$413.74$1,454.45

All five are still below what Claude paid, Argan worst at -27.28%.

Meta AI, $9,016.34

TickerSharesEntrySept 11Value
PENG37.46$49.30$51.00$1,910.68
AI170.61$10.50$10.50$1,791.37
APLD67.70$26.46$26.46$1,791.37
INOD33.19$55.60$53.78$1,784.70
BBAI603.59$3.06$2.88$1,738.22

Saturday's trades took those 30 slots from 17 different companies to 19, and for the first time no stock sits in five of the six portfolios.

One week doesn't prove crowding costs you money. But the week these six finally spread apart, winners and losers sorted almost perfectly by how many owned each stock, and two quit the most popular name on the board. Last week's edition is here, and the running scoreboard is on the tracker.

Frequently asked questions

Who is winning the AI stock battle after week 8?

DeepSeek, with an account value of $11,180.79, up 11.81% from the $10,000 start, measured at the September 11, 2026 settle. Gemini is second at $10,716.08, Grok third at $10,409.64, ChatGPT fourth at $9,899.28, then Claude at $9,412.98 and Meta AI at $9,016.34. The leaderboard is unchanged from week 7, and the order was identical at all four regular-session closes of the week. Claude was the only model to gain, adding 1.52%, or $141.38. The gap between first and last narrowed from 22.03 points to 21.64.

Why did every crowded pick fall in week 8 of the AI stock battle?

The pattern is unusually clean and it is the story of the week, though one week of prices does not establish a cause. Sorted by how many of the six models own them, every stock held by three or more models fell settle to settle: SoundHound AI (SOUN) at -6.97% with five owners, BigBear.ai (BBAI) at -1.38% with four, and Innodata (INOD) at -3.27% with three. Every stock held by exactly two models rose: Ambarella (AMBA) +7.00%, Applied Digital (APLD) +0.49%, Rigetti Computing (RGTI) +0.33% and C3.ai (AI) +0.29%. The ten stocks with a single owner split six up and four down. Eleven of the 17 contest stocks rose in total, and five of the six models still lost money, because the gainers were concentrated in names almost nobody held. Claude is the only model owning none of SoundHound, BigBear.ai or Innodata, and it holds four of the ten sole-owner names.

Why did SoundHound AI (SOUN) stock fall in the week of September 8, 2026?

There was no company news behind it. SoundHound closed lower in all four sessions of the holiday-shortened week, going from a $6.74 settle on September 4 to $6.27 on September 11, a decline of 6.97%. Its acquisition of LivePerson had already closed on September 4, when the company also named John Collins chief financial officer of the combined business. SoundHound went into the week owned by five of the six models, as it had been since week 1, and those five did not share an entry price: ChatGPT, DeepSeek and Grok bought at $6.155 in week 1 and were up 1.87%, Gemini bought at $6.0831 in week 2 and was up 3.07%, and Meta AI bought at $7.32 in week 5 and was down 14.34%. At the week 8 rebalance ChatGPT and Meta AI both sold it, taking it down to three owners.

What did Claude do in week 8 of the AI stock battle?

Nothing, for the third week running, and it was the only model in the field to finish the week higher. Claude held Rambus (RMBS), Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC), Ambarella (AMBA), UiPath (PATH) and Argan (AGX), and the account rose 1.52% to $9,412.98. Kulicke and Soffa gained 5.99%, Ambarella 7.00% and Rambus 2.32%, adding $299.88 between them, against $163.47 given back by UiPath. Claude's stated reasoning was that no company in its book reported and nothing broke on company news; that UiPath's decline was the enterprise software group de-rating on rising rates rather than a UiPath-specific failure; that the September 16 Federal Reserve decision was already priced at above 85% odds of a hike, so selling a rate-sensitive position into it captures nothing; and that a screen of eligible sub-$10 billion replacements came back empty for the fourth straight week. Claude remains fifth at 5.87% below its starting stake, with all five holdings under their entry price.

Why did UiPath (PATH) stock keep falling in September 2026?

It fell 9.49% in the week to September 11, 2026, to $13.76, after a 16.43% fall the week before, making it the worst performer in the contest for a second consecutive week and 15.38% below the price Claude paid in week 5. No new company information came out during the week. Citigroup initiated coverage at Buy with a $23 price target before the open on Tuesday September 8, and the stock still closed down 7.77% that session. The FactSet mean price target is $16.96, well above the price. The move tracked a broader de-rating in enterprise software driven by rates: the 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.80% on Tuesday for the first time since October 2023, and Guidewire, Autodesk, Synopsys, Workday and Zscaler all fell with it. The bear case from UiPath's September 3 report is unresolved, with subscription revenue missing consensus, the revenue beat coming from professional services and licenses, and third-quarter guidance implying net new annual recurring revenue falling about 4% from a year earlier.

Why did Argan (AGX) stock fall on September 9, 2026?

Piper Sandler initiated coverage of Argan at Underweight before the open that Wednesday, and the stock fell 7.93% to close at $402.13. The FactSet mean rating on Argan at the time was overweight, with a mean price target of $573. That same afternoon Argan raised its quarterly dividend 40%, to $0.70 a share from $0.50, payable October 30, 2026 to shareholders of record October 22. The stock recovered over the rest of the week and finished at $413.74, up 0.34% settle to settle. Argan had reported a record fiscal second quarter on September 2, with revenue of $384 million, up 62% year over year, and earnings of $3.76 a share.

Which AI models are losing money in the stock battle?

Three, as of the September 11, 2026 settle, up from two the week before. ChatGPT is at $9,899.28, down 1.01% from its $10,000 stake and below the line for the first time at a weekly settle, having slipped under on Thursday September 10 at $9,769.24. Claude is at $9,412.98, down 5.87%, and Meta AI is at $9,016.34, down 9.84%. The three ahead are DeepSeek at $11,180.79, Gemini at $10,716.08 and Grok at $10,409.64.

What moved AI stocks in the week of September 8, 2026?

Interest rates, since no company in the contest reported earnings. Monday September 7 was Labor Day, so it was a four-session week. On Tuesday the 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.80% for the first time since October 2023 with Brent crude above $97 a barrel, and the Dow fell 578 points intraday; semiconductors held up while enterprise software fell. Over the four sessions the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) fell 2.92%, from $104.57 to $101.52, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 0.27%, from $567.01 to $568.53. On Friday the August consumer price index showed headline inflation at 3.4% year over year and core at 2.4%, with core prices up 0.3% on the month against the 0.2% expected, which pushed CME FedWatch odds of a rate increase at the September 16 meeting to 86.3%, from 58% a week earlier. Equities still rallied on Friday as Brent gave back about 3% and yields eased, with the Dow up 0.98%, the Nasdaq 0.96% and the S&P 500 0.86%, ending a four-session losing streak. For the week the Dow lost 1.6%, the S&P 500 0.8% and the Nasdaq about 0.7%.

Which AI models sold SoundHound (SOUN) in week 8 of the AI stock battle?

ChatGPT and Meta AI, both at the $6.27 September 11, 2026 settle, in separate sessions off an identical prompt that says nothing about crowding. ChatGPT booked a 1.87% gain on the $6.155 it paid in week 1 and put all $2,037.37 of proceeds into Aeva Technologies (AEVA) at $15.44, a 20.58% weight, on a thesis about frequency-modulated lidar as a route into physical AI. Meta AI took a 14.34% loss on the $7.32 it paid in week 5, also sold Ambarella (AMBA) at $67.72 for an 8.15% loss, and split the combined $3,582.74 evenly between C3.ai (AI) at $10.50 and Applied Digital (APLD) at $26.46, each a 19.87% weight. Both submissions were verified against Robinhood and both were clean on market cap, share price, liquidity and the 10% to 40% sizing band. The effect is that SoundHound falls from five owners to three, the first time it has been in fewer than five of the six books since week 1, and Ambarella falls from two owners to one, leaving Claude as its only holder. Gemini and Grok held all five positions. One caveat on the reasoning rather than the rule: Meta AI justified buying C3.ai as a stock at 52-week lows, which is not correct, since C3.ai settled at $10.50 against a 52-week low of $7.675 set on March 30, 2026, leaving the stock about 37% above that low.

Why was DeepSeek's Guardforce AI (GFAI) pick rejected in week 8?

It broke three rules at once. DeepSeek wanted to sell C3.ai and put 100% of the proceeds into Guardforce AI, and the pick failed the $2 minimum share price, because GFAI settled at $0.3677 on September 11, 2026; failed the $5 million minimum average daily dollar volume, because its 30-day average volume of about 202,858 shares at that price works out to roughly $75,000 a day, around 1.5% of the floor; and carries a Nasdaq noncompliance flag in Robinhood's data. DeepSeek's own one-sentence justification described the stock as having a sub-$1 share price that fits the contest's small-cap mandate, so it stated the disqualifying fact and presented it as a reason to buy. This is the second consecutive week DeepSeek has had picks rejected, but the failure is a different kind. In week 7 all four of its buys were rejected and three of those were market cap errors, including IonQ reported at $8.0 billion against an actual $16.01 billion. In week 8 the market cap is the only figure it got right, $11.33 million against an actual $11.50 million. Under the standing procedure the pick is rejected, DeepSeek's book is left untouched including the C3.ai position it wanted to sell, and it is prompted again for a replacement. Claude never substitutes a pick on another model's behalf. Prompted again, DeepSeek returned a legal pick: it sold C3.ai at $10.50 and put all $2,576.78 of proceeds into Rezolve AI (RZLV) at $2.299, a 23.1% weight. RZLV clears the $2 share price floor, trades roughly $48.6 million a day against the $5 million minimum and carries no compliance flag. Its actual market cap is $956.71 million rather than the $2.1 billion DeepSeek reported, but both figures sit far under the $10 billion ceiling, so that error did not affect eligibility.

Has DeepSeek ever completed a trade in the AI stock battle?

Once, in week 8. DeepSeek led the contest through its first seven weeks holding the same five stocks it picked in week 1, without completing a single trade. At the September 12, 2026 rebalance it sold C3.ai (AI) at $10.50, which was both its largest position at 23.05% of the account and its best performer at 28.84% above its $8.1497 entry, and put all $2,576.78 of proceeds into Rezolve AI (RZLV) at $2.299. Its first attempt that week was Guardforce AI (GFAI), rejected for breaking the $2 minimum share price and the $5 million minimum daily dollar volume and for carrying a Nasdaq noncompliance flag; the Rezolve AI trade is the accepted replacement. Grok is now the only model in the contest that has never completed a trade, and it sits third.

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David Han
David Han

David Han is the founder of AIStockWire, where he covers AI, semiconductors, and technology stocks. He focuses on finding stories the market hasn’t fully connected yet, drawing on filings, insider activity, earnings, and industry data. His commentary has been quoted by U.S. News & World Report, Moneywise, and Yahoo Finance. He invests in the companies he writes about and discloses his positions. Nothing he publishes is investment advice.