Key points
- AMD reports second quarter results Tuesday, Aug. 4, after the close. Analysts expect $1.61 a share on $11.31 billion in revenue.
- The at-the-money straddle expiring Aug. 5 marked at $45.98 on Friday, pricing a 9.7% move, or about $46 either way from the $476.15 close.
- AMD's last six reports alternated down, up, down, up, down, up. The most recent two moved the stock 17.3% and 18.6%, both larger than 9.7%.
- In February the company beat on revenue and earnings and the stock fell anyway, on first quarter guidance of about $9.8 billion.
- Analysts carry $1.76 a share for the third quarter. AMD guides revenue, not earnings, and has not given a third quarter number yet.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reports second quarter results Tuesday after the close, with a conference call at 5 p.m. ET. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $1.61 a share on revenue of $11.31 billion.
That would be 236% above the $0.48 AMD earned in the same quarter a year ago, on revenue 47% above $7.68 billion. Forty analysts contribute to the estimate and their range runs from $1.48 to $1.74 a share.
AMD guided to $11.2 billion plus or minus $300 million when it reported in May.
What is the options market pricing?
The at-the-money straddle expiring Aug. 5, the first expiration after the report, marked at $45.98 on Friday against a $476.15 close. That prices a move of 9.7% in either direction, or about $46 a share.
A straddle is a call and a put bought at the same strike. Its price is what the options market charges for the move, not a forecast of which way it goes.
Implied volatility on that contract ran near 136%.
Earnings watch
The consensus estimate, the analyst target range, the beat record and the options-implied move for AMD all update daily on our AMD stock hub. Every date for the week is on the earnings calendar.
AMD's last two earnings both moved more than that
| Quarter reported | Report date | Next session |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | Feb. 4, 2025 | -6.3% |
| Q1 2025 | May 6, 2025 | +1.8% |
| Q2 2025 | Aug. 5, 2025 | -6.4% |
| Q3 2025 | Nov. 4, 2025 | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | Feb. 3, 2026 | -17.3% |
| Q1 2026 | May 5, 2026 | +18.6% |
The column measures the closing price before each report against the close of the next session. That is not always the same as the first reaction. AMD opened down 2.7% the morning after its November 2025 report, traded as low as $242.81, and finished the day up 2.5%.
AMD fell 17.3% on Feb. 4 after reporting record fourth quarter revenue of $10.3 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.53 a share. Both cleared consensus. The company then guided first quarter revenue to about $9.8 billion, a 5% sequential decline.
Lisa Su, AMD's chair and chief executive, said AI chip revenue tied to China would be limited in the near term, CNBC reported. She told the network that "AI is accelerating at a pace that I would not have imagined."
Three months later the stock rose 18.6% on May 6. First quarter revenue was $10.3 billion, non-GAAP earnings were $1.37 a share, and data center revenue was $5.8 billion, up 57%.
The reactions have alternated for six quarters
The table runs down, up, down, up, down, up. Six quarters with no repeat.
The run into each print does not line up with it. AMD rose 60.4% in the 20 sessions before the May report and then gained 18.6% on the result. It rose 9.5% in the 20 sessions before the February report and fell 17.3%.
AMD goes into Tuesday down 8.0% over the past 20 sessions and up 34.0% over the past 60.
What are analysts saying going in?
Matt Bryson, an analyst at Wedbush, raised his price target to $600 and said AMD's AI data center business is likely to grow faster than previously expected through 2027.
Vivek Arya, an analyst at Bank of America, reiterated a Buy rating and raised his 12-month target to $560 from $500.
Where the stock sits going into the print
AMD closed Friday at $476.15, down 1.90% on the day. The stock is up 122% in 2026 from its $214.16 close last year and sits 18.6% below the $584.73 it reached in June.
It has fallen 13.8% over seven sessions from $552.33 on July 22.
Nasdaq 100 futures traded at 28,612.25 Sunday evening, up 0.73% from Friday's 28,404.25 settlement. The contract is down 4.28% over the past month.
Palantir (PLTR) reports Monday after the close, one session ahead of AMD. Nine stocks from Leopold Aschenbrenner's former book report between Aug. 4 and Aug. 6, and SanDisk reports Wednesday. The Nasdaq fell six sessions in a row through July 29 before recovering.
The number the call turns on
AMD has not guided third quarter revenue. Analysts currently carry $1.76 a share for that quarter, against the $1.61 expected Tuesday.
In the May release Su said AMD "delivered an outstanding first quarter, driven by accelerating demand for AI infrastructure, with Data Center now the primary driver of our revenue and earnings growth."
Consensus figures and the expected move are as of Friday, July 31, 2026. AMD prices are the July 31 close. Options figures are the Aug. 5 $475 straddle marks at Friday's close. Nasdaq 100 futures are a Sunday evening quote. First quarter figures and the Su quote are from AMD's first quarter 2026 results release. February guidance detail as reported by CNBC. This is general market commentary and not investment advice.
