Key points
- Broadcom's AI growth relies on a few giant customers
- Micron is locking in future memory sales
- What their valuations assume
Micron Technology (MU) rose about 261% this year through Oct. 9. Broadcom (AVGO) gained about 4%. Both supply the AI buildout, but choosing between them for the next three years means looking beyond how far their shares have already climbed.
Broadcom’s AI growth depends on a handful of customers spending heavily on custom chips. Micron’s depends on demand for memory staying strong as new supply arrives. Long-term contracts have secured part of Micron’s future sales, while Broadcom has set ambitious AI revenue targets through fiscal 2028.
The question is what each company needs to deliver from here, and what investors are paying for those expectations. Micron closed Oct. 9 at $1,029.00 and Broadcom at $361.54.
The latest quarters side by side
| Broadcom | Micron | |
|---|---|---|
| Latest fiscal quarter | Q3, ended Aug. 2 | Q4, ended Sept. 3 |
| Revenue | $29.6 billion | $54.2 billion |
| Revenue a year earlier | $16.0 billion | $11.3 billion |
| Next-quarter revenue guidance | About $34.8 billion | $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion |
| Longer-term number the company has given | AI revenue of about $115 billion in fiscal 2027 and about $230 billion in fiscal 2028 | About $150 billion in remaining performance obligations, counting only the long-term agreements with set pricing terms |
| Quarterly dividend | $0.65 a share | $0.15 a share |
Sources: Broadcom and Micron earnings releases and calls, September 2026.
The longer-term figures need different readings. Broadcom’s numbers are annual AI revenue targets. Micron’s $150 billion represents contracted revenue from those of its 26 agreements that have set pricing terms. Its finance chief called that figure “inherently conservative.”
Broadcom's next three years depend on a few customers
AI semiconductor revenue totaled $16.7 billion in Broadcom's third quarter, or 56% of the total, and the company expects $21.7 billion in the fourth quarter. The rest of the business, which includes VMware software, is expected to bring in about $13.1 billion, roughly what it did in the third quarter. Nearly all of Broadcom's growth is coming from AI.
Chief Executive Hock Tan has said the company expects about $115 billion of AI revenue in fiscal 2027 and about $230 billion in fiscal 2028, and adjusted earnings of more than $30 a share in fiscal 2028. He said those targets rest on the plans of six customers, including Alphabet, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta, and that supply is secured for both years. Anthropic is expected to become Broadcom's largest custom-chip customer in 2027.
That concentration is one thing to watch. Broadcom has also agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to help pay for computing built on chips Broadcom designs with Google, which ties part of its revenue to a customer it's helping finance.
Micron's next three years depend on how long memory stays tight
Micron's fiscal 2026 revenue reached $133.2 billion, up 256%. Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said Micron expects memory supply and demand to be "much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026." The company has agreements covering the vast majority of its calendar 2027 supply of high-bandwidth memory, the kind used in AI chips.
Memory has historically moved in cycles, with prices falling when new factories come online. Micron is adding capacity in stages: its first Idaho fab is expected to produce output in mid-calendar 2027, a second in late calendar 2028 and a New York site in calendar 2030. Its 26 long-term agreements cover more than 35% of its expected revenue through 2030, and customers have put up $32 billion in financial commitments, mostly cash deposits.
A limit on large share buybacks tied to Micron's CHIPS Act funding expires Dec. 9. Management has said it intends to increase capital returns after that date.
Each valuation rests on a different assumption
At its Oct. 9 close, Broadcom traded at about 12 times its fiscal 2028 adjusted earnings target of more than $30 a share. Micron traded at about 7 times its first-quarter adjusted earnings guidance of $38.15 a share, annualized.
Those multiples look low, but they use different earnings periods and assumptions. Broadcom's calculation relies on an adjusted earnings target for fiscal 2028. Micron's assumes one quarter's projected adjusted earnings can be sustained for a full year. For Broadcom, the question is whether its biggest customers keep spending as planned. For Micron, it's whether contract pricing and demand hold up as new supply arrives. We track both companies' disclosed contract figures on our AI backlog leaderboard.
