Key points
- Constellation Energy (CEG) reports Q2 before the open Thursday, August 6.
- Two feeds carry two different estimates: $2.37 and $2.24. Q2 2025 was $1.91.
- CEG traded near $268 Tuesday, about 35% below its 52-week high.
- Price targets run from Citi's $297 to TD Cowen's $454.
- Vistra (VST) fell 7% Tuesday on no company news, and reports Friday.
The AI power trade has been a losing trade since October. That is the backdrop for Constellation Energy (CEG). It reports second quarter results before the open on Thursday, August 6.
Wall Street cannot even agree on what to expect. Robinhood's consensus feed carries $2.37 a share, and Barchart says it's $2.24. The company earned $1.91 in the same quarter last year, so both numbers imply growth, just different amounts of it.
Constellation does not publish a quarterly figure at all. It guides to a full-year range instead, and in May it affirmed that range at $11.00 to $12.00 a share.
Where does the stock sit?
Not where the demand story would suggest. CEG changed hands near $268 on Tuesday afternoon, down about 2% on the day. Its high for the year was $412.70, set back on October 15. The low came on July 1 at $228.63. Ten months after the top, the stock sits closer to that low than to its own high.
Tuesday was another soft session for the group, and the two biggest names were the ones that fell.
| Stock | Tuesday | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Vistra (VST) | $144.87 | -7.1% |
| Constellation (CEG) | $268.11 | -2.0% |
| GE Vernova (GEV) | $1,017.15 | +1.0% |
| Oklo (OKLO) | $43.72 | +6.1% |
Prices at 1:44 p.m. Eastern Tuesday, measured against Monday's closes.
Vistra put out no announcement Tuesday. Quiver Quantitative attributed the drop to sector-wide selling with no fresh company catalyst. Vistra reports Friday morning. Oklo went the other way and is still far below its own October high, a gap that opened up during the July run on the Trump administration's nuclear program.
What did Constellation report last quarter?
A beat, and a much larger company than a year earlier. Adjusted operating earnings came in at $2.74 a share, up from $2.14. Revenue is where Calpine shows up. That deal closed in January, and operating revenues jumped 64% to $11.12 billion. The GAAP line moved further still, reaching $4.49 a share where the same quarter last year produced 38 cents.
"America needs reliable, clean power and Constellation is built to meet this demand with the strength of our fleet and the solutions we're delivering for customers," said Joe Dominguez, president and chief executive, in the May 11 release. He said the focus right now is on execution, "operating at a high level, integrating two great companies, bringing new resources to market, and navigating a changing regulatory environment."
Chief financial officer Shane Smith paired the affirmed guidance with "the expectation of strong, visible cash flow that supports our strategic capital allocation framework."
The nuclear fleet produced 44,666 gigawatt-hours in the quarter, down from 45,582 a year earlier. Capacity factor slipped to 92.3% from 94.1%. Sites Constellation operates logged 99 planned refueling outage days, up from 88. Those plants are the asset behind the nuclear deals data center developers keep signing.
The clearest data-center marker in the quarter came out of Texas. The Public Utility Commission of Texas approved the net metering application for co-locating a CyrusOne data center at Constellation's Freestone site, subject to conditions. Constellation signed a 380 MW agreement with CyrusOne in February.
How often does Constellation beat?
Four times in six quarters, and neither miss was large. It came up a penny short in the first quarter of 2025 and five cents short in the third.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $1.86 | $2.44 |
| Q1 2025 | $2.15 | $2.14 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.83 | $1.91 |
| Q3 2025 | $3.09 | $3.04 |
| Q4 2025 | $2.23 | $2.30 |
| Q1 2026 | $2.60 | $2.74 |
Where do analysts have it?
Nowhere close to each other. The spread between the highest and lowest target is more than $150 a share, on a stock trading near $268.
| Firm | Target | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | $454 | Buy |
| Morgan Stanley | $366 | Overweight |
| Citi | $297 | Neutral |
The average across 23 analysts is $352.91. Citi cut its number on July 1. TD Cowen set its own back in February, citing the chance that contracting activity speeds up this year.
What else reports this week?
GE Vernova (GEV) reported in July, raised its cash forecast, and the stock fell anyway. Constellation goes again on November 6.
Dominguez closed the May release by crediting the quarter to "the women and men who power our business every day."
Cover photo: Limerick Generating Station, Pottstown, Pennsylvania. Red0ctober22 / Wikimedia Commons, CC0. Cropped.
