Key points
- K-pop's four biggest agencies, HYBE, SM, JYP and YG, are all down more than half from their highs over the past year.
- The second half of 2026 has a stacked comeback lineup. BTS are touring, BIGBANG open a 20th-anniversary world tour in Goyang on August 21, Stray Kids released a new album on August 7, and aespa begin a world tour this month.
- Brokerages cut their price targets over the summer but kept their buy ratings, betting the second half turns both earnings and the stocks.
- Prices on August 14, with dollar values, HYBE 179,400 won (about $126), SM 73,400 won (about $52), JYP 41,050 won (about $29), YG 41,050 won (about $29).
- The risks at JYP are the eventual military enlistment of Stray Kids and an unsettled TWICE contract. Across the sector, heavy upfront spending is holding margins down.
BIGBANG (빅뱅) return to the road this month for their first world tour in nine years. It begins August 21 with three stadium dates in Goyang, just beyond Seoul. Those shows open one of K-pop's busiest stretches in recent memory. BTS (방탄소년단) are already touring. Two weeks ago, Stray Kids (스트레이키즈) released a new album that will anchor their next tour, while aespa (에스파) also begin a world tour this month.
Concert revenue, record sales and merchandise will therefore arrive within a narrow period, the combination that normally pushes earnings higher at the four agencies behind these acts. The market is telling a different story. All four stocks remain more than 50% below their highs from the past year.
Before covering the companies as investments, I wrote about the music made by some of their artists, which makes the current disconnect particularly odd to follow. BTS agency HYBE (하이브) finished Friday at 179,400 won (about $126), about 56% under its 12-month high. The decline at aespa's SM Entertainment (에스엠) is about 53%. JYP Entertainment (제이와이피) has dropped about 54%, while BIGBANG manager YG Entertainment (와이지) is the weakest of the four with a fall of about 63%.
The distance between the shows and the share prices isn't new. When HYBE reported the biggest quarter in its history in late July, with sales above 1 trillion won (about $700 million) for the first time, the stock fell 16% the same day. Strong numbers, on their own, haven't been enough this year.
Targets cut, ratings kept
What the brokerages are doing about it is unusual. They've spent the summer lowering their price targets while keeping their buy ratings. Lee Hyun-ji (이현지) at Yujin Investment Securities (유진투자증권) still rates HYBE a buy, with a target of 340,000 won (about $240), close to double where it trades now, and titled a late-July note "실적과 반대로 가는 주가," a stock going the opposite way from its earnings. On the sector as a whole, Lee wrote that the headliners set the floor while the younger groups decide the rest.
"올해 하반기는 대형 아티스트들이 실적의 외형을 안정적으로 열어주는 가운데, 저연차 아티스트들의 성장이 숫자로 가시화되며 실적 기여로 이어지는지가 하반기 엔터주의 구조적 반등을 결정하는 핵심 열쇠가 될 것."
In plain terms, BTS and BIGBANG will carry the sales, and whether younger groups like RIIZE and NCT WISH begin to show up in the numbers is what decides if the stocks actually turn.
The clearest test
The sharpest case is at JYP. Stray Kids released their tenth mini album on August 7. Park Jun-hyung (박준형) at SK Securities (SK증권) wrote that it had already passed 2.8 million copies in early sales before the count was even finished, more than their last one. Park keeps a buy on the stock but cut the target to 66,000 won (about $46), from 75,000. Park's caution is the other half of the comeback story.
"스트레이키즈의 군입대와 트와이스 재계약 불확실성은 중장기 실적에 부담 요인."
Members of Stray Kids will have to leave for military service at some point, and TWICE's contract isn't settled, and both sit over the company's longer-term earnings.
The other two rest on the same idea. At SM, analysts are watching aespa's tour and the younger groups more than the veterans. At YG, almost everything now rides on BIGBANG, which is why the reunion matters so much to the stock that has fallen the furthest of the four.
Some of the drop has little to do with the music. Korean investors spent the summer moving money into US stocks or crowding into Samsung (삼성전자) and SK Hynix (SK하이닉스), and smaller names like these were left behind while the market's attention sat somewhere else.
Meanwhile, the concerts are already selling. BIGBANG's three nights in Goyang, on August 21 to 23, are their first shows together since 2017. Whether that becomes a floor for the stocks, the way the analysts are betting, is the part the second half of the year will answer.
Sources
- 이투데이, 엔터주, 목표가 줄하향에도 하반기 전망은 '맑음', on brokerages cutting targets while keeping buy ratings
- 뉴스핌, [리포트 브리핑] 하이브, '실적과 반대로 가는 주가' 목표가 340,000원, on Yujin Investment Securities' HYBE target
- 뉴스핌, [모닝 리포트] JYP엔터, 스트레이키즈 흥행에도 군입대 변수, on SK Securities' JYP note and the enlistment risk
- 쿠팡 뉴스룸, 데뷔 20주년 빅뱅, 9년 만의 단독 월드투어 8월 21일-23일 고양 개최, on the BIGBANG tour dates
- Our earlier coverage: HYBE's record quarter and the stock's fall
Figures are converted at about 1,419 won to the US dollar. The analyst comments are quoted in the original Korean, with an explanation in English. Source titles are in the original Korean. This is general market commentary and not investment advice.
