Nvidia (NVDA) expects physical AI revenue to grow from $10 billion to $100 billion in a decade. It made $96 billion last quarter.

Nvidia (NVDA) expects physical AI revenue to grow from $10 billion to $100 billion in a decade. It made $96 billion last quarter.

Key points

  • Nvidia (NVDA) expects physical AI revenue to hit $100 billion in a decade, up from $10 billion today.
  • Nvidia booked $96.2 billion in revenue last quarter.
  • Goldman sees humanoid robots alone at about $138 billion by 2035, a narrower market than physical AI.

Deepu Talla told the Financial Times he expects Nvidia's (NVDA) revenue connected to physical AI to grow tenfold over the coming decade, from $10 billion to $100 billion. Talla is the company's vice-president of robotics and edge AI. Nvidia recorded $96.2 billion in revenue for the quarter that ended July 26, 2026, while revenue across the latest twelve months was approximately $303 billion. On that basis, today's $10 billion physical AI figure is a little over 3% of total revenue. The $100 billion projection for ten years from now slightly exceeds what Nvidia presently earns in one quarter.

"Ninety per cent of the world's actions need to happen in the physical world, not just in the digital world, that's why we believe the opportunity for physical AI is arguably an order of magnitude larger," Talla told the paper.

Physical AI covers robots, autonomous vehicles, and other systems that act in the world rather than generating text or images. Chief executive Jensen Huang has said every industrial company will become a robotics company as AI moves from the digital to the physical realm. Elon Musk is directing tens of billions of dollars into Tesla (TSLA) as it shifts from electric vehicles toward robotaxis and humanoids, and manufacturing start-ups selling what the industry calls robotics-as-a-service have drawn valuations closer to those of software companies.

Nvidia (NVDA) revenuePeriodAmount
Latest quarterEnded July 26, 2026$96.2 billion
Trailing twelve monthsThrough July 26, 2026About $303 billion
Physical AI todayCurrent annual run rateAbout $10 billion
Physical AI targetWithin ten years$100 billion
Advertisement

Washington is watching the same number

The prospect has fed hopes in Washington that American strength in technology will lift a manufacturing sector in long decline. "The only way the US is going to regain its role in manufacturing is by applying AI more effectively than China," said Chris Miller, an economic historian at Tufts University. The Pentagon's interest centers on the defense industrial base, which has struggled to expand production against a shortage of munitions and growing competition from China.

China's state venture fund is intended to channel about $137 billion into AI, robotics, and advanced manufacturing, while the flagship US robotics institute runs on about $30 million and a robotics executive order remains unsigned, as we covered in our look at state spending on robotics. On the demand side, Goldman Sachs recently raised its 2035 humanoid robot forecast nearly fivefold to 6.48 million units, a market it sizes at about $138 billion. The two figures are close in size but they are not the same measure. Goldman is sizing humanoid robots only, while Nvidia's $100 billion covers the wider physical AI category, including autonomous vehicles and other robotics.

Nvidia guided to revenue of $108.0 billion for the current quarter, plus or minus 2%.

Advertisement

Frequently asked questions

How much revenue does Nvidia (NVDA) make from physical AI?

About $10 billion a year, according to Deepu Talla, Nvidia's vice-president of robotics and edge AI, who told the Financial Times the company expects that to reach $100 billion over the next decade. For scale, Nvidia's trailing twelve-month revenue is about $303 billion, so physical AI is a little over 3% of the total today.

What is physical AI?

It refers to AI systems that act in the physical world rather than only producing digital output, including robots, humanoids, and autonomous vehicles. Nvidia sells the chips and software used to train, simulate, and run them.

How big is Nvidia's $100 billion physical AI target compared with its business today?

Nvidia reported $96.2 billion of revenue in the quarter ended July 26, 2026. The $100 billion physical AI target is for a decade out, so it is a little more than what the company currently books in one quarter. This is general information, not investment advice.

More on NVDA and TSLA

Dennis Singleton
Dennis Singleton

Dennis Singleton has spent years following the markets, but what keeps his attention is how AI is built. He writes about the companies behind the technology, from semiconductor designers and advanced packaging to photonics, memory, networking, and the hardware powering modern AI. His approach starts with filings, earnings, and industry research, then translates the important details into clear, straightforward analysis without unnecessary hype.