Key points
- Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow futures are only modestly higher Friday morning, up roughly 0.1% to 0.15%, after a rough Thursday close.
- Thursday: the Dow fell 0.97%, the S&P 500 fell 1.21% and the Nasdaq fell 2.15%, dragged down by a 7% drop in Alphabet and a 14% drop in Tesla after their earnings.
- Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since May after Houthi rebels attacked two Saudi oil tankers and President Trump threatened strikes on Iran.
- South Korea's Kospi closed down 5.72% and the Kosdaq fell 5.32% overnight, both triggering sell-side sidecars; Samsung dropped 7.59% and SK Hynix fell 8.34%.
- This month's Fridays have split so far: green on July 10, red on July 17, closed for the holiday on July 3.
- Intel bucked Thursday's rout, popping in after hours trading on its own earnings beat.
Normally, Fridays stay red. But every Friday this month has gone a different way. The first Friday, July 3, was a holiday, markets were closed. The second, July 10, was green, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%. The third, July 17, was red, a semiconductor rout knocked the S&P down 1% and the Nasdaq down 1.4%. The trend says today should be green. Will it hold up?
Today's Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are pointing up into Friday's open, but only modestly. Dow futures are up about 0.1%, S&P 500 futures up around 0.1%, Nasdaq futures up close to 0.15% as well.
With Iran tensions rising, oil ripping higher, and Asia getting crushed overnight, you'd expect today to be red too. Futures aren't buying the panic, at least not yet.
Thursday was an absolute bloodbath, especially for the Magnificent Seven. The Dow fell 0.97%, the S&P 500 fell 1.21%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.15% by the close. Alphabet dropped 7% and Tesla dropped 14% after both posted earnings and raised their AI spending guidance for the year. Normally more spending sounds bullish. This time it spooked investors instead, they read it as a sign the payoff is getting harder to see.
On top of that, oil spiked overnight. Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since May after Houthi rebels attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and President Trump threatened a strike on Iran. New US tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on major trading partners also kick in today, energy products are exempted, though that didn't stop oil from ripping higher on the Middle East news alone.
South Korea got hit hard overnight. The Kospi closed down 5.72% and the Kosdaq fell 5.32%, both triggering sell-side sidecars to slow the selling. Samsung dropped 7.59% and SK Hynix fell 8.34%. Japan's Nikkei fell more than 2% too. It's a sharp reversal from Thursday, when the Kospi actually rallied 4.4% on that same Alphabet and Tesla spending guidance, before Middle East tensions and Wall Street's overnight losses flipped the mood entirely.
Intel didn't get dragged into Thursday's selloff. It popped as high as $113.70 in after hours trading on its own earnings beat, then gave back more than half of that by the close. We covered that call here.
We'll see if today actually holds once the real session gets going, especially with oil this hot and Asia this red overnight. I'll update this once the close is in.
