My position: I own ONDS. Average cost is about $9. Nothing here is investment advice.
Key points
- Ondas is up about 16% since last Friday's close on three straight wins: a $50 million-plus Army order, an Air Force Research Laboratory contract, and ex-Mossad chief David Barnea joining Ondas Defense.
- The stock jumped 12% the day Barnea joined. Wednesday's Army-order session was the loudest of the week at 109 million shares, more than 50% above the prior week's daily average, even though price barely moved.
- Short interest was reported at 43.9% of the float on the July 15 settlement date, up from about 32% in late June, and rising borrow costs plus this week's volume set up classic short-squeeze conditions heading into earnings.
- Backlog across Ondas, Mistral, DZYNE and this week's two new orders adds up to roughly $624 million by my own count. Earnings land before the open on August 13.
I own Ondas (ONDS) at an average of about $9, and I'm holding it long term. This week gave me three real reasons to feel good about that, and the stock had already priced in most of it before the third press release even landed. ONDS is up about 16% since Friday's close, even after giving back some of Wednesday's gain today, and the volume behind that move is worth more than the headlines.
Three wins, and the volume told the real story
Monday, Ondas announced David Barnea, who ran Israel's Mossad until his term ended in June, was joining Ondas Defense Ltd. as Global President and Chairman. Ondas says it's a private-sector role with no relationship to Israeli intelligence. CEO Eric Brock called Barnea "an extraordinary combination of current operational experience, strategic judgment, technology leadership and global relationships." The stock jumped 12% that day on 56 million shares.
Tuesday it kept drifting higher on 73 million shares, no fresh headline, just follow-through. Then Wednesday the Army gave Mistral Inc., Ondas' defense prime contractor, an order for more than $50 million, an add-on to the $982 million IDIQ Mistral already holds for the Army's Lethal Unmanned Systems program. Combined awards under that vehicle now top $240 million. Brock: "Mistral is already producing systems for delivery beginning in the third quarter of 2026 under the initial LUS order, and this new award extends that production runway on the same Army contract vehicle." That was the loudest trading day of the week, 109 million shares, more than 50% above the roughly 70 million daily average from the week before, even though the price barely moved.
Thursday, the Air Force Research Laboratory put more than $6 million behind the Long-Range Grasshopper autonomous cargo drone, which came out of DZYNE Technologies, the company Ondas bought in July for $875 million, $200 million cash and about 85 million new shares. Six million dollars won't move Ondas' revenue by itself, but it's a government lab funding more flight testing on hardware Ondas now owns outright. The stock closed the week around $8.72, down from Wednesday's $8.87, on the quietest volume of the four sessions, about 53 million shares.
What I don't like about this stock
The share count is still the problem, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise because I own it. Shares outstanding went from 137.4 million in May 2025 to 495,762,650 as of the company's most recent 10-Q cover page, up 261%. That dilution is why short sellers keep showing up.
Short interest was reported at 43.9% of the float on the July 15 settlement date, up from about 32% in late June, and multiple trackers note borrowing costs have climbed along with it. I don't have a clean current borrow-fee number I trust enough to print, but this is a genuinely crowded short heading into an earnings date. High borrow costs and a heavy-volume week make it easier for a single piece of news to force short covering.
One more thing that kept me in through all of this: Jim Cramer called Ondas "a meme stock" on Mad Money's lightning round on June 9, telling a caller "I can't get behind a meme stock... meme stock could rip your lungs out." For a while he looked right. ONDS fell from around $9.65 that day into the $6s by late July. I didn't stay in to prove him wrong on price. The reasons I own this kept showing up anyway: the Q1 revenue beat, the backlog build, real contracts landing this week.
Add up the backlog yourself, and it's real money regardless. Pro forma backlog was $457 million at the end of Q1, already counting Mistral and World View. DZYNE added $111 million more as of June 30. This week's Army and AFRL awards add another $56 million-plus. That's about $624 million by my own count, not a figure Ondas has stated itself, and it's before Tuesday's numbers add anything new.
What August 13 needs to show
Q1 revenue was $50.1 million, up from $4.2 million a year earlier. Brock, in the Q1 release: "we are increasing our full-year revenue outlook to at least $390 million." He also pointed to the $1.48 billion of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments as "substantial capacity to support organic growth." None of this week's orders show up in Tuesday's print. They land in Q3. What I want from management is straightforward: guidance that holds or moves higher, and language on the cash position that gets more specific instead of staying generic.
Two questions before I add another share
This is the Warren Buffett test: understand the business, trust the people running it.
What Ondas actually does has gotten complicated fast. It started as a private wireless networking company, Ondas Networks, whose FullMAX radios run on railroads and utility lines. In under two years, it added a drone and counter-drone unit (American Robotics, Airobotics, Iron Drone), a defense-prime business (Mistral's precision-strike systems), an ISR and cargo-delivery hardware maker (DZYNE), and a stratospheric-balloon surveillance platform (World View), five businesses mostly stitched together with stock. Brock's own words on the approach, from the DZYNE announcement: "The combination with DZYNE accelerates Ondas' build-out of the next-generation autonomous defense platform, not through a single breakthrough product, but by integrating complementary, mission-proven technologies into a scaled operating platform." The sector story, more government money going toward drones and autonomy, is easy to follow. Five acquisitions in under two years is a lot to actually understand piece by piece.
On leadership, I believe in this team. Brock spent seventeen years as a portfolio manager at Clough Capital Partners before taking over Ondas in 2018. Mistral brought Army relationships and a $982 million contract vehicle. DZYNE brought ISR and cargo-delivery hardware. Barnea and Ondas Sentinel CEO Ryan Hartman bring the operating and defense-sales experience a finance background doesn't have. For scale: Anduril, the largest private defense-tech company, was valued near $61 billion in its May 2026 round on about $4.3 billion of projected 2026 revenue, roughly 14 times sales. Ondas is worth about $4.5 billion on $390 million of guided revenue, roughly 11 times sales. Insiders have been net sellers over the last 90 days, Brock's own $31.9 million in June included, with zero reported buys. I'd like to see that change.
Where I stand: I'm not adding after a strong week, and I'm not selling into it either. I bought this because the Pentagon is actually spending in Ondas' category, not because of any single headline. We wrote about that spending shift earlier this week. August 13 tells me whether this was a real re-rating or short covering with good timing.
Sources
- Ondas Inc. press releases, August 3 to August 6, 2026: David Barnea appointment, U.S. Army Lethal Unmanned Systems order, Air Force Research Laboratory Long-Range Grasshopper contract
- Ondas Inc. first-quarter 2026 earnings release, 10-Q cover page, DZYNE and Mistral acquisition releases
- Short interest data, June 30 and July 15, 2026 settlement dates
- CNBC, Mad Money lightning round, June 9, 2026
- Ondas Inc. SEC Form 4 filings and DEF 14A proxy, and Eric Brock's biography as published by Ondas Inc.
- Anduril Industries funding announcement, May 13, 2026 (Thrive Capital, Andreessen Horowitz)
- Market data and trading volume as of the August 6, 2026 close
