
WSJ columnist says a price crash could end the AI boom. I think cheaper AI could also prolong it
AI prices have been falling fast. The real question is who eats the decline.

The US imported $45 billion of AI gear from China last year, even as Washington cracks down on Chinese AI
China's share of US AI imports is falling fast. Its optics and AI models are still in the US AI supply chain.

Nvidia (NVDA) in early talks to buy or invest more in Reflection AI, the startup behind Beam
Nvidia led Reflection's $2 billion round last year, and the startup's first open-weight model trails Chinese rivals on its own benchmarks.

The S&P 500's five biggest stocks now equal the bottom 434. In 2018 it was 282.
Michael Batnick's count has gone from 282 to 350 to 434 since 2018. We ran it ourselves and got 431.

The White House's $6 billion science push includes $2.4 billion in AI credits from 11 companies. Nvidia (NVDA) pledged $1 billion.
The pledges are credits and tools, not government money, and the White House didn't show how its $6 billion total adds up. Three items make up most of it.

Lumentum (LITE) is sold out of AI optical parts into 2029, and customers are already lining up 2030 orders
Customers are already lining up orders for 2030. Hyperscalers are helping pay for new capacity.

Nvidia (NVDA) plans to invest in d-Matrix, an inference-chip rival building chips for its racks
The startup already plans to plug its next chips into Nvidia systems, and Nvidia's Groq deal is under scrutiny.

Former Groq engineers sue over Nvidia's (NVDA) $20 billion deal, calling it a sale without a vote
They say the deal was a sale in everything but name. Groq calls the suit meritless.

TSMC (TSM) posted a record quarter. Whether it beat its own forecast depends on the exchange rate.
Sales rose 18% in one quarter and topped the analyst consensus. Full results land October 15.

Trump to award science medals to Musk, Brin, Huang, and Su as disclosure shows trades in their companies
It's the first time Trump has presented the medal in either term. Dell and Nadella get a separate technology award.

SemiAnalysis says users call IREN's (IREN) Prince George and Mackenzie data centers the industry's worst
SemiAnalysis praised IREN's Texas builds but disputed its managed-services claim. Nvidia's $70 exercise price sits far above the stock.

Microsoft's (MSFT) Nvidia-powered Surface Laptop Ultra starts at $2,599 and ships October 16
Microsoft is offering up to $1,000 back to MacBook Pro owners who switch. Before the event, analysts said price was the biggest question.

Meta, Google, and US agencies join Zuckerberg's Biohub in $1.8 billion push to build virtual cells
Part of the $1.8 billion was committed earlier, and the companies that pay in get an early look at the data. The first dataset is due in about a year.

Ray Dalio warns the AI bubble is nearing a breaking point. Our data shows a mixed picture.
Insider selling shows up in our index, mostly at Nvidia. Borrowing costs don't yet, and valuations are the coolest reading of the seven.

SpaceX (SPCX) seeks $40 billion in Apollo-led debt to buy Nvidia chips
Bond fund Pimco is among the lenders in talks, and the deal may not close until 2027. SpaceX shares slipped after hours while Nvidia and Apollo edged up.

Mistral says its 1-trillion-parameter model rivals China's best open AI, tackles cyber tasks Claude and GPT-6 refuse
Mistral's CEO says Europe can compete. A blind coding test still put Claude on top.

OpenAI sets its own $1.4 trillion price and asks Abu Dhabi's MGX and BlackRock (BLK) to fill a $30 billion round
There is no lead investor. A group of UAE funds could supply a third of the money.

Nvidia-backed Reflection unveils Beam, betting on lower compute needs as Chinese open models lead its own benchmarks
Reflection's own numbers show where Beam falls short, and where it beats Thinking Machines' Inkling.

Foxconn (HNHPF) posts record $36.5 billion September sales as AI demand lifts quarterly revenue 47%
Third-quarter sales beat estimates. Hon Hai's fourth-quarter outlook is worded differently from its last one.

Big pension funds are trimming US stocks over AI concentration. Your index fund can't
Three major retirement funds now allocate less to US stocks than their benchmarks. Passive investors don't get that choice.

The memory shortage is making electronics more expensive. AI users aren't the only ones paying.
Nvidia's seven-year-old streaming box just got $100 more expensive. The memory makers behind the price hikes are earning record profits, and their stocks still trade at low multiples.

TSMC (TSM) eyes a Texas chip campus beyond its $265 billion Arizona plan. Musk confirms Terafab talks.
A tax credit's construction-start deadline could decide whether the Texas fabs happen. Musk calls the Terafab talks just discussions.

Software has beaten chips in the AI trade since June. I think earnings could send buyers back to chips.
Goldman's own strategists expect the thing that carried earnings this year to fade. One of its specialists is still watching the chips anyway.

Cerebras (CBRS) bets its giant AI chip can outrun Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs
It turns an entire silicon wafer into one chip. That buys speed, but Cerebras still depends on TSMC for every wafer.